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Biased Budgeting in the Public Sector: Evidence from Italian Local Governments

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  • Eugenio Anessi-Pessina
  • Mariafrancesca Sicilia

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse, in terms of presence, determinants and purposes, the misrepresentation of expected revenues during budget formulation and the misrepresentation of actual revenues during budget execution. To this end, we use six-year panel data from Italian municipalities with populations above 15,000. Our results suggest that overestimations of current revenues are more frequent than underestimations, during both budget formulation and budget execution. In terms of determinants, our results highlight the impact on revenue misrepresentation of both political orientation and fiscal stress. Finally, in terms of purposes, we show that revenue underestimation during budget formulation and revenue overestimation during budget execution may contribute to the formation of surpluses. The former, in particular, may allow mayors to create a ‘war chest’ in non-election years, which can then be used to increase net borrowing on the eve of elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Eugenio Anessi-Pessina & Mariafrancesca Sicilia, 2015. "Biased Budgeting in the Public Sector: Evidence from Italian Local Governments," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 819-840, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:flgsxx:v:41:y:2015:i:6:p:819-840
    DOI: 10.1080/03003930.2015.1012194
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    Cited by:

    1. Picchio, Matteo & Santolini, Raffaella, 2020. "Fiscal rules and budget forecast errors of Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Bronić Mihaela & Stanić Branko & Prijaković Simona, 2022. "The Effects of Budget Transparency on the Budget Balances and Expenditures of Croatian Local Governments," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 111-124, June.
    3. Zhiyong An & Yilin Hou, 2020. "Debt authority and intentional overstatement of budgetary deficit: evidence from Chinese Provinces," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 461-477, April.

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