Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A Bayesian Analysis of Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in the Level, Trend, and Error Variance of Autoregressive Models of Economic Series

Contents:

Author Info

  • Loukia Meligkotsidou
  • Elias Tzavalis
  • Ioannis Vrontos

Abstract

In this article, a Bayesian approach is suggested to compare unit root models with stationary autoregressive models when the level, the trend, and the error variance are subject to structural changes (known as breaks) of an unknown date. Ignoring structural breaks in the error variance may be responsible for not rejecting the unit root hypothesis, even if allowance is made in the inferential procedures for breaks in the mean. The article utilizes analytic and Monte Carlo integration techniques for calculating the marginal likelihoods of the models under consideration, in order to compute the posterior model probabilities. The performance of the method is assessed by simulation experiments. Some empirical applications of the method are conducted with the aim to investigate if it can detect structural breaks in financial series, especially with changes in the error variance.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07474938.2011.534046
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Econometric Reviews.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 208-249

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:208-249

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/LECR20

Order Information:
Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/LECR20

Related research

Keywords: Autoregressive models; Bayesian inference; Model comparison; Structural breaks; Unit roots;

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Karavias, Yiannis & Tzavalis, Elias, 2013. "The Power Performance of Fixed-T Panel Unit Root Tests allowing for Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 46012, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:30:y:2011:i:2:p:208-249. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.