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Determinants of County-Level Voting Patterns In the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections

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  • Leo H. Kahane

Abstract

County-level data are used to estimate the incumbent-party share of the two-party vote in the 2012 and the 2016 U.S. Presidential elections. Using a ‘seemingly unrelated estimation’ procedure the regression results for the two elections show that there were some clear differences in the size of marginal effects for several key covariates. For example, income inequality, the size of the black male and black female populations, the size of the Hispanic male population and percent of the population with a college degree all had significantly larger coefficients in 2016 than in 2012, producing a larger marginal effect in favour of the Democratic candidate’s vote share. On the other hand, counties with increased poverty rates and counties located on the periphery of urban centres had a significantly larger marginal effect favouring the Republican’s vote share in 2016 compared to 2012. Finally, the regression results show that the effects of third-party vote shares, though not statistically different across the two elections, had a positive impact on the Democratic vote share in both elections.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo H. Kahane, 2020. "Determinants of County-Level Voting Patterns In the 2012 and 2016 Presidential Elections," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(33), pages 3574-3587, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:33:p:3574-3587
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2020.1713985
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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Rashad & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2022. "Regional heterogeneity and U.S. presidential elections: Real-time 2020 forecasts and evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 662-687.
    2. Pinar Deniz & Burhan Can Karahasan & Mehmet Pinar, 2021. "Determinants of regional distribution of AKP votes: Analysis of post‐2002 parliamentary elections," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 323-352, April.

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