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Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI

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  • Hai Yue Liu
  • Ivan Deseatnicov

Abstract

Did the exchange rate (ER) regime change that was announced by the Chinese government in 2005 lead to an increased sensitivity of Chinese multinational companies (MNCs) to ER fluctuations? To answer this question our article considers the effect of ER level, volatility and expectation on the Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) activities in 119 countries for a period of 2003–2013. We find striking evidence that Chinese Renminbi appreciation has a negative impact on Chinese outward FDI flows, and both higher ER volatility and expected depreciation encourage Chinese outward FDI flows. We introduce two complementary effects that explain these findings: repatriation effect and mercantilist effect. In view of the recent debate about the growing importance of Chinese Renminbi in the international transactions we believe that our research results shed light on the possible impact of ER policies on Chinese MNCs behaviour and global FDI distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Hai Yue Liu & Ivan Deseatnicov, 2016. "Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4961-4976, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:51:p:4961-4976
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1167831
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shi Li & Hironobu Nakagawa, 2022. "Exchange rates and foreign direct investment: Evidence from Chinese firm‐level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(9), pages 2902-2923, September.
    2. Haiyue Liu & Jie Jiang & Lei Zhang & Xiaolan Chen, 2018. "OFDI Agglomeration and Chinese Firm Location Decisions under the “Belt and Road” Initiative," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, November.
    3. Liu, Haiyue & Wang, Yile & Jiang, Jie & Wu, Peng, 2020. "How green is the “Belt and Road Initiative”? – Evidence from Chinese OFDI in the energy sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Deseatnicov, Ivan & Klochko, Olga, 2023. "Currency risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Xing Zhou & Quan Guo & Ming Zhang, 2021. "Impacts of OFDI on Host Country Energy Consumption and Home Country Energy Efficiency Based on a Belt and Road Perspective," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-25, November.
    6. Yu Ma & Xinqian Du, 2022. "Exchange rate factors, income levels, and investment abroad: An empirical study based on a sample of emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 1711-1730, April.
    7. S. Veeramani & Abha Shukla & Mariam Jamaleh, 2020. "Financial theories of foreign direct investment: a review of literature," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(2), pages 185-217, June.
    8. Qi, Jianhong & Liu, Hui & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2021. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the timing of Chinese Outward Direct Investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1193-1204.
    9. Vissa, Siva Kameswari & Thenmozhi, M., 2022. "What determines mergers and acquisitions in BRICS countries: Liquidity, exchange rate or innovation?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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