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Cycles and steps in British commercial property values

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  • Peter Scott
  • Guy Judge

Abstract

This paper examines cyclical behaviour in commercial property values over the period 1956 to 1996, using a structural times series (unobserved components) approach. The influence of the transition to short rent reviews during the late 1960s and the short and long-term impacts of the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are also incorporated into the analysis, via dummy variables. It is found that once these variables are taken into account a fairly regular cyclical pattern can be discerned, with a period of about 7.8 years. Furthermore, the 1974 and 1990 property crashes are shown to have had a major long-term impact on property value growth (presumably via their influence on investors' expectations).

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File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000368400404443
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2000)
Issue (Month): 10 ()
Pages: 1287-1297

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:10:p:1287-1297

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Cited by:
  1. Zeno Adams & Roland Füss, 2012. "Disentangling the Short and Long-Run Effects of Occupied Stock in the Rental Adjustment Process," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 570-590, May.
  2. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, 03.
  3. Mark Hon & Soo-Keong Yong, 2004. "The price of owning a car: an analysis of auction quota premium in Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(7), pages 739-751.
  4. Steven Devaney, 2007. "Long Run Relationships Between City Office Rents and The Economy In The UK – Creating a Database for Research," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.

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