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Movements in real estate uncertainty in the United States: the role of oil shocks

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  • Rangan Gupta
  • Xin Sheng
  • Qiang Ji

Abstract

In this paper, we analyse the role played by disaggregated oil shocks in driving real estate uncertainty (REU) over the monthly period of 1975:02 to 2017:12, based on impulse response functions generated from the local projection method. We find that the oil-specific consumption demand shock is statistically the strongest predictor of higher future REU, followed by the significant negative impact from the aggregate supply shock, especially for long-run REU. While the oil inventory demand shock has a short-lived positive impact on REU, global economic activity shock virtually plays no role in driving the same. Our results have important implications for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Xin Sheng & Qiang Ji, 2021. "Movements in real estate uncertainty in the United States: the role of oil shocks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13), pages 1059-1065, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:28:y:2021:i:13:p:1059-1065
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2020.1796911
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    Cited by:

    1. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from a large panel of 45 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    2. Sheng, Xin & Kim, Won Joong & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The impacts of oil price volatility on financial stress: Is the COVID-19 period different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 520-532.
    3. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & van Eyden, Reneé & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level real housing returns of the United States: The role of oil dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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