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Uncertainty and international return migration: some evidence from linked register data

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  • Jan Saarela
  • Dan-Olof Rooth

Abstract

This article provides the first empirical evidence about the role of uncertainty in international return migration decisions using high-quality and detailed micro-data that cover migrants who were observed in both the source country before emigration and in the host country subsequent to immigration. We find that uncertainty in the initial migration decision might be an important driving mechanism behind the decision to return migrate, because migrants with a worse-than-expected outcome in the host country upon arrival and shortly thereafter have a notably higher probability of return migration than other migrants.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Saarela & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2012. "Uncertainty and international return migration: some evidence from linked register data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1893-1897, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:18:p:1893-1897
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2012.674196
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Analia Olgiati & Rocio Calvo & Lisa Berkman, 2013. "Are Migrants Going Up a Blind Alley? Economic Migration and Life Satisfaction around the World: Cross-National Evidence from Europe, North America and Australia," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 383-404, November.
    2. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2020. "Naturalization in a Context of Free Mobility: Evidence from Cross-National Data on Finnish Immigrants in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 317-335, April.
    3. Auer, Daniel & Tetlow, Daniel, 2020. "Brexit, collective uncertainty and migration decisions," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Migration, Integration, Transnationalization SP VI 2020-102, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    4. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2017. "Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 542-564, June.
    5. Saarela, Jan, 2015. "Worse than expected? Uncertainty and earnings subsequent to return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 28-30.
    6. Alvaro Morcillo & Rashmi Bhat, 2013. "Return migration to South Africa: reasons and socioeconomic profile," NCID Working Papers 03/2013, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    7. Mya Mya Thet & Piriya Pholphirul, 2016. "The Perception of Myanmar Development on its Return Migrants: Implications for Burmese Migrants in Thailand," Journal of International Migration and Integration, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 995-1014, November.
    8. Fatma MABROUK, 2013. "À la recherche d’une typologie des migrants de retour : le cas des pays du Maghreb," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2013-06, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).

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