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Compositional Data Analysis – Coherent Forecasting Mortality Model with Cohort Effect

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  • Amos BATIONO
  • Leo ODONGO
  • Karim DERRA

Abstract

In this paper, an extension of the Coherent forecasts of mortality with compositional data analysis (CoDa) model of Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2017) to cohort effect is proposed applied to data from six African countries. The process of fitting this model starts by adapting the Renshaw and Haberman (2006) to compositional data analysis (CODA) as suggested by Bergeron-Boucher et al. (2017). The proposed CoDa-cohort model generally fits the data better than the original cohort model of Renshaw and Haberman (2006). To get the full CoDa-cohort-coherent model the multiple population factor is included in CoDa-cohort model. Then a comparison between CoDa -coherent and CoDa-cohort-coherent models revealed that they have similar accuracy for the selected countries in West Africa but not for countries in East Africa based on Aitchinson distance (AD). But for merged populations like male and female, the new model, CoDa-cohort-coherent, has generally better fits for Kenya mortality data.  Keywords: Mortality, Compositional data analysis, coda, Coherent, Cohort, Forecast

Suggested Citation

  • Amos BATIONO & Leo ODONGO & Karim DERRA, 2020. "Compositional Data Analysis – Coherent Forecasting Mortality Model with Cohort Effect," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:stecon:v:9:y:2020:i:1:f:9_1_5
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    1. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2017. "Coherent forecasts of mortality with compositional data analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(17), pages 527-566.
    2. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    3. Nan Li & Ronald Lee, 2005. "Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the lee-carter method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(3), pages 575-594, August.
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