Macro economic cycle effect on mortgage and personal loan default rates
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Peter Guttorp & Tilmann Gneiting, 2006. "Studies in the history of probability and statistics XLIX On the Matern correlation family," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(4), pages 989-995, December.
- T Bellotti & J Crook, 2009. "Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1699-1707, December.
- Olena Havrylchyk, 2010.
"A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector,"
Working Papers
3579, South African Reserve Bank.
- Havrylchyk, Olena, 2010. "A macroeconomic credit risk model for stress testing the South African banking sector," MPRA Paper 21639, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2004. "Forecasting Retail Portfolio Credit Risk," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 16-32, February.
- Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2004.
"Forecasting Retail Portfolio Credit Risk,"
Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 16-32, February.
- Daniel Roesch & Harald Scheule, 2004. "Forecasting retail portfolio credit risk," Published Paper Series 2004-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
- L C Thomas & R W Oliver & D J Hand, 2005. "A survey of the issues in consumer credit modelling research," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 56(9), pages 1006-1015, September.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Maria Rosa Borges & Raquel Machado, 2020. "Modelling credit risk: evidence for EMV methodology on Portuguese mortgage data," Working Papers Department of Economics 2020/03, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2013. "Forecasting and stress testing credit card default using dynamic models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 563-574.
- Bellotti, Tony & Crook, Jonathan, 2011. "Forecasting and Stress Testing Credit Card Default Using Dynamic Models," Working Papers 11-34, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Malik, Madhur & Thomas, Lyn C., 2012. "Transition matrix models of consumer credit ratings," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 261-272.
- Hamerle, Alfred & Knapp, Michael & Wildenauer, Nicole, 2005. "Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Assetkorrelationen in Mehr-Sektoren-Kreditportfoliomodellen," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 409, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Wang, Zheqi & Crook, Jonathan & Andreeva, Galina, 2020. "Reducing estimation risk using a Bayesian posterior distribution approach: Application to stress testing mortgage loan default," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 725-738.
- Siyi Wang & Xing Yan & Bangqi Zheng & Hu Wang & Wangli Xu & Nanbo Peng & Qi Wu, 2021. "Risk and return prediction for pricing portfolios of non-performing consumer credit," Papers 2110.15102, arXiv.org.
- Vahid Baradaran & Maryam Keshavarz, 2017. "System dynamics modelling of retailers' credit risk," International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 26(3), pages 380-396.
- Cho, Yongbok & Lee, Yongwoong, 2022. "Asymmetric asset correlation in credit portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
- Naveed Chehrazi & Thomas A. Weber, 2015. "Dynamic Valuation of Delinquent Credit-Card Accounts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 3077-3096, December.
- Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass & Mhlophe, Bongani, 2019. "Modelling Asset Correlations of Revolving Loan Defaults in South Africa," MPRA Paper 97340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jonathan Crook & Tony Bellotti, 2010. "Time varying and dynamic models for default risk in consumer loans," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(2), pages 283-305, April.
- Dunbar, Kwamie, 2012. "Forecasting and Stress-testing the Risk-based Capital Requirements for Revolving Retail Exposures," Working Papers 2012001, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
- Yi-Ping Chang & Chih-Tun Yu, 2014. "Bayesian confidence intervals for probability of default and asset correlation of portfolio credit risk," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 331-361, February.
- J. Crook & T. Bellotti, 2012. "Asset correlations for credit card defaults," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 87-95, January.
- Palombini, Edgardo, 2009. "Factor models and the credit risk of a loan portfolio," MPRA Paper 20107, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pawel Siarka, 2021. "Global Portfolio Credit Risk Management: The US Banks Post-Crisis Challenge," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, March.
- Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
- Santiago Gamba-Santamaria & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Camilo Orozco-Vanegas, 2021. "What can credit vintages tell us about non-performing loans?," Borradores de Economia 1154, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Alejandro Ferrer Pérez & José Casals Carro & Sonia Sotoca López, 2014. "A new approach to the unconditional measurement of default risk," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2014-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Alexandre, Michel & Antônio Silva Brito, Giovani & Cotrim Martins, Theo, 2017. "Default contagion among credit modalities: evidence from Brazilian data," MPRA Paper 76859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
credit risk; probability of default; forecasting; gaussian process;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:7:y:2017:i:6:f:7_6_1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Eleftherios Spyromitros-Xioufis (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.scienpress.com/ .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.