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Can RMB Exchange Rate Expectations Explain the Fluctuations of China’s Housing Prices?

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  • Chunni Wang

Abstract

Unlike existing literature that has focused on the relationship between exchange rate and housing price, this paper studies the housing price fluctuations from the perspective of RMB exchange rate expectation to resolve the dilemma “guarantee housing price or exchange rate†after the sub-prime mortgage crisis. This paper shows that housing prices responded negatively to RMB appreciation expectation from 1999 to 2008, and positively from 2009 to 2019. After 2009, exchange rate expectation is the Granger causality of housing prices. After introducing the U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) released by Baker et al.(2016), the explanatory power of exchange rate expectations to housing price fluctuations declines but it's still significant. When EPU increased, housing prices responded negatively after a brief positive response. Besides exchange rate expectation, several unobservable factors with rich economic implications can explain the fluctuations of housing prices in China in the interval of 2006M01–2018M12. The empirical results show that the degree of Chinese government reversal intervention, interest rate spread between China and the U.S., and EPU can explain the exchange rate expectation. The government can control the degree of reversal intervention to affect the exchange rate expectation and realize the housing price control indirectly.  JEL classification numbers: E44, R31, G18 Keywords: RMB exchange rate expectations, China's housing price fluctuations, FAVAR model, Degree of reversal intervention.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunni Wang, 2020. "Can RMB Exchange Rate Expectations Explain the Fluctuations of China’s Housing Prices?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(5), pages 1-12.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:apfiba:v:10:y:2020:i:5:f:10_5_12
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    2. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    rmb exchange rate expectations; china's housing price fluctuations; favar model; degree of reversal intervention.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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