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Stock market performance and economic growth Empirical Evidence from Kenya using Causality Test Approach

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  • Tobias O. Olweny
  • Danson Kimani

Abstract

This study investigates the causal relationship between stock market performance and economic growth in Kenya for the period 2001-2010, using quarterly secondary data. The objective was to empirically analyze using the Granger causality test and establish the link between stock market performance and economic growth (i.e. whether stock market performance causes economic growth or itself is a consequence of increased economic activity). Although there are numerous empirical researches conducted with regard to the correlation between financial market and economic growth, majority of them have focused on the implication of banks and the credit markets on economic growth. No single research had constituted an in-depth study of the causal relationship between stock market performance and economic growth in Kenya before. The investigation of the causal relationship was conducted using the popular Granger causality test based on the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The statistical techniques used include the unit root Augmented Dickey Fuller test in order to fulfill the objective of stationarity for all the time series in their levels and first differences. The Johansen co-integration test was used to investigate whether the variables are cointegrated of the same order taking into account the trace statistics and the maximum eigen-value tests. The variables were found to be cointegrated with at least one co-integrating vector. Finally, a Granger causality test was used in order to find the direction of causality between stock market performance and economic growth within the estimated model. The findings imply that the causality between economic growth and stock market runs unilaterally or entirely in one direction from the NSE 20-share index to the GDP. From the results, it was inferred that the movement of stock prices in the Nairobi stock exchange reflect the macroeconomic condition of the country and can therefore be used to predict the future path of economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias O. Olweny & Danson Kimani, 2011. "Stock market performance and economic growth Empirical Evidence from Kenya using Causality Test Approach," Advances in Management and Applied Economics, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:spt:admaec:v:1:y:2011:i:3:f:1_3_9
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    Cited by:

    1. Eleanya K. Nduka & Ugochukwu E. Anigbogu & Ishaku R. Nyiputen, 2016. "Investigating the Causal Relationship Between Stock Market and Aggregate Economic Performance of South Africa," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(4), pages 218-227, April.
    2. Rebecca Attah-Annor & Alhassan Bunyaminu, 2016. "Effect of Stock Market Dynamics on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana Stock Exchange," International Journal of Financial Markets, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 69-93.
    3. Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi, 2016. "Does Stock Market Development Play Any Role In The Effect Of Fdi On Economic Growth In Nigeria? An Empirical Investigation," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 51-61, September.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Zainudin, Rozaimah, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Capitalization in Pakistan:Fresh Evidence from Cointegration with unknown Structural breaks," MPRA Paper 52490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Dec 2013.
    5. Ceylan Nesrin & Münyas Turgay, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on the Relationship Between the Eurozone Zew Index and the Eurozone Stock Markets," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Roche Charles & Dr. Olweny Tobias & Dr. Nasieku Tabitha, 2021. "Fundamental Anomalies and Firms Financial Distress; Evidence from Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 1-1.
    7. Oseni, Isiaq & Akpa, Emeka & Aberu, Felix, 2018. "Does Stock Market impact on the Growth of Nigerian Economy using 3SLS Analysis?," MPRA Paper 92285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pan, Lei & Mishra, Vinod, 2018. "Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 661-673.
    9. Raymond K. DZIWORNU & Dadson AWUNYO-VITOR, 2013. "Stock Exchange Performance and Economic Growth in Ghana: Is There A Causal Link?," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(9), pages 1152-1165, September.
    10. Juan Yang & Mirza Nasir Jahan Mehdi & Muhammad Hafeez & Md. Abdul Kaium & Raufhon Salahodjaev, 2023. "Financial Indicators’ Performance and Green Financing Projects: A Comparative Study from PSX and NYSX," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, March.
    11. Gladys A. A. Nabieu & Charles Barnor, 2016. "The Effect of Stock Market Performance on Economic Growth in Ghana," International Journal of Financial Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 12-32.
    12. Turgut Tursoy & Faisal FAISAL, 2016. "Causality between stock price and GDP in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Romanian Statistical Review, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 64(4), pages 3-19, December.
    13. B.T. Katangodage & A.W. Wijeratne, 2016. "Value-weighted price return index for plantation sector of Colombo Stock Exchange of Sri Lanka," International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 12(1), pages 27-52.
    14. Samuel Antwi & Mohammed Issah & Richard Kpodo, 2021. "Stock market and economic growth nexus in Ghana," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 57-73.
    15. Mohd Irfan & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2022. "Low-carbon energy strategies and financial development in developing economies: investigating long-run influence of credit and equity market development," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 1-26, April.
    16. Offum, Peter F. & Ihuoma, Chikulirim E., 2018. "CAPITAL MARKET AND INDUSTRIAL PERFORMANCE NEXUS: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 1-16.
    17. Prempeh, Kwadwo Boateng, 2016. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Price Volatility in Ghana," MPRA Paper 70545, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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