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Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Jin Hyuck Kim

    (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)

  • Jang Hyun Sung

    (Han River Flood Control Office, Seoul)

  • Shamsuddin Shahid

    (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM))

  • Eun-Sung Chung

    (Seoul National University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Hydrological drought is assessed through river flow, which depends on river runoff and water withdrawal. This study proposed a framework to project future hydrological droughts considering agricultural water withdrawal (AWW) for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The relationship between AWW and potential evapotranspiration (PET) was determined using a deep belief network (DBN) model and then applied to estimate future AWW using projections of the twelve global climate models (GCMs). 12 GCMs were bias-corrected using the quantile mapping method, climate variables were generated, and river flow was estimated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to project the changes in hydrological drought characteristics. The results revealed a higher occurrence of severe droughts in the future. Droughts would be more frequent in the near future (2021–2060) than in the far future (2061–2100) and more severe when AWW is considered. Droughts would also be more severe for SSP5-8.5 than for SSP2-4.5. The study revealed that the increased PET due to rising temperatures is the primary cause of the increased drought frequency and severity. The AWW will accelerate the drought severities in the future in the Yeongsan River basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Hyuck Kim & Jang Hyun Sung & Shamsuddin Shahid & Eun-Sung Chung, 2022. "Future Hydrological Drought Analysis Considering Agricultural Water Withdrawal Under SSP Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(9), pages 2913-2930, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:9:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03116-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03116-1
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    2. Yonca Cavus & Kerstin Stahl & Hafzullah Aksoy, 2022. "Revisiting Major Dry Periods by Rolling Time Series Analysis for Human-Water Relevance in Drought," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(8), pages 2725-2739, June.
    3. Mohammad Naser Sediqi & Daisuke Komori, 2023. "Assessing Water Resource Sustainability in the Kabul River Basin: A Standardized Runoff Index and Reliability, Resilience, and Vulnerability Framework Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, December.

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