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A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall

Author

Listed:
  • Ming Zhong

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Ting Zeng

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Tao Jiang

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Huan Wu

    (Sun Yat-sen University
    University of Maryland)

  • Xiaohong Chen

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Yang Hong

    (University of Oklahoma)

Abstract

Flash floods can be characterized by several variables. Of these, soil moisture (SM) is an important environmental factor that plays a key role in hydrological and ecological processes and affects the mechanisms that cause flash floods. To more accurately determine the occurrence probability of flash floods, the combined effects of soil moisture and rainfall indexes were considered in this paper, and the copula function approach was explored for use in joint probability analyses of flash flood risks. The results showed that (1) the Clayton copula function offered the best fit for the bivariate joint distribution and captured the occurrence probability of the combination of both peak flow (PF) and SM, while the t-copula function achieved the best fit for the multivariate joint distribution, which presented different combinations of characteristic flash flood parameters. (2) The joint distribution probability of flash floods increased with increasing risk parameter thresholds. Return period analysis indicated that the return periods of the bivariate joint distribution were smaller than those of the multivariate joint distribution. (3) If PF and SM are fixed, the occurrence probability of flash floods is higher in regions where the maximum 1-h rainfall is higher. This study provides an effective and quantitative approach to improving flash flood prediction and advances the application of this approach for the management of future flash flood risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming Zhong & Ting Zeng & Tao Jiang & Huan Wu & Xiaohong Chen & Yang Hong, 2021. "A Copula-Based Multivariate Probability Analysis for Flash Flood Risk under the Compound Effect of Soil Moisture and Rainfall," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 83-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02709-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02709-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen An & Ming Dou & Jianling Zhang & Guiqiu Li, 2021. "Method for Analyzing Copula-Based Water Shortage Risk in Multisource Water Supply Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4877-4894, November.
    2. Longxia Qian & Yong Zhao & Jianhong Yang & Hanlin Li & Hongrui Wang & ChengZu Bai, 2022. "A New Estimation Method for Copula Parameters for Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis With Small Sample Sizes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1141-1157, March.
    3. Poornima Unnikrishnan & Kumaraswamy Ponnambalam & Nirupama Agrawal & Fakhri Karray, 2023. "Joint Flood Risks in the Grand River Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-14, June.
    4. Mohammad Nazeri-Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2022. "Bivariate Simulation of Potential Evapotranspiration Using Copula-GARCH Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(3), pages 1007-1024, February.
    5. Wenlin Yuan & Lu Lu & Hanzhen Song & Xiang Zhang & Linjuan Xu & Chengguo Su & Meiqi Liu & Denghua Yan & Zening Wu, 2022. "Study on the Early Warning for Flash Flood Based on Random Rainfall Pattern," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1587-1609, March.
    6. Homa Razmkhah & Alireza Fararouie & Amin Rostami Ravari, 2022. "Multivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using Bivariate Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 729-743, January.

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