IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v32y2018i8d10.1007_s11269-018-1962-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigation of the Behavior of an Agricultural-Operated Dam Reservoir Under RCP Scenarios of AR5-IPCC

Author

Listed:
  • Umut Okkan

    (Balikesir University)

  • Umut Kirdemir

    (Balikesir University)

Abstract

In regions where the Mediterranean climate prevails, the agricultural sector and agricultural-operated dam reservoirs are threatened by climate change. In this respect, the prediction of hydro-meteorological changes that may occur in surface water resources under climate change scenarios is essential to examine the sustainability of reservoirs. In this paper, Demirköprü reservoir in the Gediz Basin/Turkey, a reservoir operated for irrigation purposes, was analyzed against the RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios specified in the AR5 report of the IPCC. Projection period was evaluated as 2016-2050 water year period. First, statistical downscaling, Bayesian model averaging and quantile delta mapping bias correction techniques were respectively applied to monthly total precipitation and monthly average temperatures of meteorological stations in the region using 12 GCMs. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, negligible reductions in precipitation are foreseen, while significant increases of 1.3 and 1.8 °C, respectively, are projected for temperatures under the same scenarios. Following the calibration of rainfall-runoff models for the sub-basins feeding the reservoir, streamflow simulations were also performed with projected precipitation and temperatures. In particular, according to the RCP 8.5 scenario, reservoir inflows during the period 2016-2050 could be reduced by 21% compared to the reference scenario results. Finally, the projected crop water demands and hydro-meteorological changes are evaluated together and the reservoir performances are examined using various indices. Assuming that the performance of the past irrigation yields will not change in the future, it is foreseen that reservoir’s sustainability will decrease by 16% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even if the irrigation efficiency is increased by 40%, the reservoir cannot reach past sustainability characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Umut Okkan & Umut Kirdemir, 2018. "Investigation of the Behavior of an Agricultural-Operated Dam Reservoir Under RCP Scenarios of AR5-IPCC," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2847-2866, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1962-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1962-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-018-1962-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-018-1962-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lanhai Li & Honggang Xu & Xi Chen & S. Simonovic, 2010. "Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment Under Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 83-104, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jaenam Lee & Hyungjin Shin, 2022. "Agricultural Reservoir Operation Strategy Considering Climate and Policy Changes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ali Assani & Raphaëlle Landry & Jonathan Daigle & Alain Chalifour, 2011. "Reservoirs Effects on the Interannual Variability of Winter and Spring Streamflow in the St-Maurice River Watershed (Quebec, Canada)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3661-3675, November.
    2. Hassan Alimohammadi & Ali Reza Massah Bavani & Abbas Roozbahani, 2020. "Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on the Performance of Multi-Purpose Reservoirs by Changing the Operation Policy from SOP to MLDR," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1495-1516, March.
    3. Uriel Huaringa Alvarez & Mélanie Trudel & Robert Leconte, 2014. "Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change Using a Reservoir Management Tool to a Northern Watershed: Application to Lièvre River Watershed, Quebec, Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3667-3680, September.
    4. Sajjad Ahmad & Dinesh Prashar, 2010. "Evaluating Municipal Water Conservation Policies Using a Dynamic Simulation Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3371-3395, October.
    5. Zhihe Chen & Shuai Wei, 2014. "Application of System Dynamics to Water Security Research," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 287-300, January.
    6. Guangxing Ji & Zhizhu Lai & Haibin Xia & Hao Liu & Zheng Wang, 2021. "Future Runoff Variation and Flood Disaster Prediction of the Yellow River Basin Based on CA-Markov and SWAT," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Hongbo Ling & Hailiang Xu & Jinyi Fu, 2013. "Temporal and Spatial Variation in Regional Climate and its Impact on Runoff in Xinjiang, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 381-399, January.
    8. Olmstead, Sheila M., 2014. "Climate change adaptation and water resource management: A review of the literature," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 500-509.
    9. Sabah Fayaed & Ahmed El-Shafie & Othman Jaafar, 2013. "Integrated Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) Model for Optimal Release Policy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3679-3696, August.
    10. Yutao Qi & Liang Bao & Yingying Sun & Jungang Luo & Qiguang Miao, 2016. "A Memetic Multi-objective Immune Algorithm for Reservoir Flood Control Operation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 2957-2977, July.
    11. Ruqayah Mohammed & Miklas Scholz, 2017. "Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(11), pages 3557-3573, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1007_s11269-018-1962-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.