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Prediction of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations by Using Analytical, Linear Statistic and Intelligent Methods

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  • Hossein Kakahaji
  • Hamed Banadaki
  • Abbas Kakahaji
  • Abdulamir Kakahaji

Abstract

Undoubtedly, the most significant factor with wise decision making and designing hydrological structures along the lake coasts is an accurate model of lake level changes. This issue becomes more and more important as recent global climate changes have completely reformed the behavior of traditional lake level fluctuations. Subsequently, estimating lake levels becomes more important and at the same time more difficult. This paper deals with modeling lake level changes of Lake Urmia located in north-west of Iran, in terms of both simulator and predictor models. According to this, two traditional simulator models based on water budget are developed which benefit from most effective components on water budget namely precipitation, evaporation, inflow and the lake level antecedents, as model inputs. Most famous linear modeling tools, Autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) and Box-Jenkins (BJ) models are employed with the same mentioned inputs for prediction purpose. In addition, two other methods that are, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network and also Local Linear Neuro-Fuzzy (LLNF) are applied to investigate capability of intelligent nonlinear methods for lake level changes prediction. All models performances are indicated using both graph and numerical illustrations and results are discussed. Comparative results reveal that the intelligent methods are superior to traditional models for modeling lake level behavior as complex hydrological phenomena. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Hossein Kakahaji & Hamed Banadaki & Abbas Kakahaji & Abdulamir Kakahaji, 2013. "Prediction of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations by Using Analytical, Linear Statistic and Intelligent Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(13), pages 4469-4492, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:27:y:2013:i:13:p:4469-4492
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-013-0420-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2013. "Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 137-151, January.
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    5. Leila Ostadrahimi & Miguel Mariño & Abbas Afshar, 2012. "Multi-reservoir Operation Rules: Multi-swarm PSO-based Optimization Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(2), pages 407-427, January.
    6. Elmira Hassanzadeh & Mahdi Zarghami & Yousef Hassanzadeh, 2012. "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 129-145, January.
    7. Yan-Fang Sang, 2013. "Improved Wavelet Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Time Series Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2807-2821, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Babak Vaheddoost & Hafzullah Aksoy & Hirad Abghari, 2016. "Prediction of Water Level using Monthly Lagged Data in Lake Urmia, Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4951-4967, October.
    2. Marijana Hadzima-Nyarko & Anamarija Rabi & Marija Šperac, 2014. "Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks in Modeling the Water-Air Temperature Relationship of the River Drava," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1379-1394, March.
    3. Salman Sharifazari & Shahab Araghinejad, 2015. "Development of a Nonparametric Model for Multivariate Hydrological Monthly Series Simulation Considering Climate Change Impacts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5309-5322, November.
    4. Meral Buyukyildiz & Gulay Tezel & Volkan Yilmaz, 2014. "Estimation of the Change in Lake Water Level by Artificial Intelligence Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(13), pages 4747-4763, October.
    5. Hossein Bonakdari & Isa Ebtehaj & Pijush Samui & Bahram Gharabaghi, 2019. "Lake Water-Level fluctuations forecasting using Minimax Probability Machine Regression, Relevance Vector Machine, Gaussian Process Regression, and Extreme Learning Machine," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(11), pages 3965-3984, September.
    6. Ali Torabi Haghighi & Nasim Fazel & Ali Akbar Hekmatzadeh & Björn Klöve, 2018. "Analysis of Effective Environmental Flow Release Strategies for Lake Urmia Restoration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(11), pages 3595-3609, September.

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