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Identification and Quantification of Uncertainties in a Hydrodynamic River Model Using Expert Opinions

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  • Jord Warmink
  • Hanneke Klis
  • Martijn Booij
  • Suzanne Hulscher

Abstract

Hydrodynamic river models are applied to design and evaluate measures for purposes such as safety against flooding. The modelling of river processes involves numerous uncertainties, resulting in uncertain model outcomes. Knowledge of the type and magnitude of uncertainties is crucial for a meaningful interpretation of the model results and the usefulness of results in decision making processes. The aim of this study is to identify the sources of uncertainty that contribute most to the uncertainties in the model outcomes and quantify their contribution to the uncertainty in the model outcomes. Experts have been selected based on an objective Pedigree analysis. The selected experts are asked to quantify the most important uncertainties for two situations: (1) the computation of design water levels and (2) the computation of the hydraulic effect of a change in the river bed. For the computation of the design water level, the uncertainties are dominated by the sources that do not change between the calibration and the prediction. The experts state that the upstream discharge and the empirical roughness equation for the main channel have the largest influence on the uncertainty in the modeled water levels. For effect studies, the floodplain bathymetry, weir formulation and discretization of floodplain topography contribute most to the uncertainties in model outcomes. Finally, the contribution of the uncertainties to the model outcomes show that the uncertainties have a significant effect on the predicted water levels, especially under design conditions. Copyright The Author(s) 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Jord Warmink & Hanneke Klis & Martijn Booij & Suzanne Hulscher, 2011. "Identification and Quantification of Uncertainties in a Hydrodynamic River Model Using Expert Opinions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 601-622, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:2:p:601-622
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9716-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. Keur & H. Henriksen & J. Refsgaard & M. Brugnach & C. Pahl-Wostl & A. Dewulf & H. Buiteveld, 2008. "Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(11), pages 1677-1708, November.
    2. Peter Keur & M. Brugnach & A. Dewulf & J. Refsgaard & P. Zorilla & M. Poolman & N. Isendahl & G. Raadgever & H. Henriksen & J. Warmink & M. Lamers & J. Mysiak, 2010. "Identifying Uncertainty Guidelines for Supporting Policy Making in Water Management Illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3901-3938, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li Li & Eun-Sung Chung & Kyung Soo Jun, 2018. "Robust Parameter Set Selection for a Hydrodynamic Model Based on Multi-Site Calibration Using Multi-Objective Optimization and Minimax Regret Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3979-3995, September.
    2. J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.

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