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Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin

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  • P. Keur
  • H. Henriksen
  • J. Refsgaard
  • M. Brugnach
  • C. Pahl-Wostl
  • A. Dewulf
  • H. Buiteveld

Abstract

Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) can be viewed as a complex process in which the effect of adopted water management measures must be monitored and adjusted in an iterative way as new information and technology gradually become available under changing and uncertain external impacts, such as climate change. This paper identifies and characterises uncertainty as it occurs in the different stages of the IWRM process with respect to sources, nature and type of uncertainty. The present study develops a common terminology that honour the most important aspects from natural and social sciences and its application to the entire IWRM process. The proposed framework is useful by acknowledging a broad range of uncertainties regarding data, models, multiple frames and context. Relating this framework to the different steps of the IWRM cycle is helpful to determine the strategies to better handle and manage uncertainties. Finally, this general framework is illustrated for a case study in the transboundary Rhine river basin. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • P. Keur & H. Henriksen & J. Refsgaard & M. Brugnach & C. Pahl-Wostl & A. Dewulf & H. Buiteveld, 2008. "Identification of Major Sources of Uncertainty in Current IWRM Practice. Illustrated for the Rhine Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(11), pages 1677-1708, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:11:p:1677-1708
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-008-9248-6
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    1. Claudia Pahl-Wostl, 2007. "Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(1), pages 49-62, January.
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    1. Mark Wiering & Joris Verwijmeren & Kris Lulofs & Christian Feld, 2010. "Experiences in Regional Cross Border Co-operation in River Management. Comparing Three Cases at the Dutch–German Border," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(11), pages 2647-2672, September.
    2. Saskia Hommes & Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf & Henriëtte Otter & Geiske Bouma, 2009. "Knowledge and Perceptions in Participatory Policy Processes: Lessons from the Delta-Region in the Netherlands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(8), pages 1641-1663, June.
    3. Valentina Krysanova & Chris Dickens & Jos Timmerman & Consuelo Varela-Ortega & Maja Schlüter & Koen Roest & Patrick Huntjens & Fons Jaspers & Hendrik Buiteveld & Edinson Moreno & Javier Pedraza Carrer, 2010. "Cross-Comparison of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Across Large River Basins in Europe, Africa and Asia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 4121-4160, November.
    4. Emmanuel Pagneux & Guðrún Gísladóttir & Salvör Jónsdóttir, 2011. "Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 269-287, July.
    5. Peter Keur & M. Brugnach & A. Dewulf & J. Refsgaard & P. Zorilla & M. Poolman & N. Isendahl & G. Raadgever & H. Henriksen & J. Warmink & M. Lamers & J. Mysiak, 2010. "Identifying Uncertainty Guidelines for Supporting Policy Making in Water Management Illustrated for Upper Guadiana and Rhine Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3901-3938, November.
    6. Frank Ward & Manuel Pulido-Velazquez, 2012. "Economic Costs of Sustaining Water Supplies: Findings from the Rio Grande," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2883-2909, August.
    7. Elizabeth Curmi & Richard Fenner & Keith Richards & Julian Allwood & Bojana Bajželj & Grant Kopec, 2013. "Visualising a Stochastic Model of Californian Water Resources Using Sankey Diagrams," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 3035-3050, June.
    8. John H Matthews & Bart AJ Wickel & Sarah Freeman, 2011. "Converging Currents in Climate-Relevant Conservation: Water, Infrastructure, and Institutions," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(9), pages 1-4, September.
    9. J. J. Warmink & M. Brugnach & J. Vinke-de Kruijf & R. M. J. Schielen & D. C. M. Augustijn, 2017. "Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4587-4600, November.
    10. Hans Henriksen & Jens Refsgaard & Anker Højberg & Nils Ferrand & Peter Gijsbers & Huub Scholten, 2009. "Harmonised Principles for Public Participation in Quality Assurance of Integrated Water Resources Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(12), pages 2539-2554, September.
    11. Torben Sonnenborg & Klaus Hinsby & Lieke Roosmalen & Simon Stisen, 2012. "Assessment of climate change impacts on the quantity and quality of a coastal catchment using a coupled groundwater–surface water model," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(3), pages 1025-1048, August.
    12. Roland Barthel & Stephan Janisch & Darla Nickel & Aleksandar Trifkovic & Thomas Hörhan, 2010. "Using the Multiactor-Approach in G lowa-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector Under Conditions of Global Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(2), pages 239-275, January.
    13. J. Refsgaard & K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen & M. Drews & K. Halsnæs & E. Jeppesen & H. Madsen & A. Markandya & J. Olesen & J. Porter & J. Christensen, 2013. "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies—A Danish water management example," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 337-359, March.
    14. Asgeir Petersen-Øverleir & André Soot & Trond Reitan, 2009. "Bayesian Rating Curve Inference as a Streamflow Data Quality Assessment Tool," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(9), pages 1835-1842, July.
    15. Jord Warmink & Hanneke Klis & Martijn Booij & Suzanne Hulscher, 2011. "Identification and Quantification of Uncertainties in a Hydrodynamic River Model Using Expert Opinions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 601-622, January.

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