IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sjobre/v52y2000i2d10.1007_bf03372611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Die Prognosekraft des Prognoseberichts

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Pechtl

    (Ernst-Moritz-Arndt-Universität Greifswald)

Abstract

Summary This paper focuses on management’s forecasts in annual reports as indicators for shareholder value. Content analysis classifies 202 german corporate reports published in 1995 according their prognoses. Regression analyses correlate these forecasts with changes of company’s share-price occurring between shareholders annual meetings in 1995 and 1996. Although the results indicate that management’s prognoses usually offer low information quality, some announcements have predictive power. Statements, which are signalling negative business growth, defensive strategies or a worsening cost position are correlated with diminishing shareholder value. Also, missing information about future earnings can be treated as a negative indicator. Furthermore, clusters of similar forecasting behavior in annual reports are identified, which relate to corresponding changes in shareholder value.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Pechtl, 2000. "Die Prognosekraft des Prognoseberichts," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 141-159, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:52:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03372611
    DOI: 10.1007/BF03372611
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/BF03372611
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF03372611?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pearce, Douglas K & Roley, V Vance, 1985. "Stock Prices and Economic News," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(1), pages 49-67, January.
    2. Kolbe, Richard H & Burnett, Melissa S, 1991. "Content-Analysis Research: An Examination of Applications with Directives for Improving Research Reliability and Objectivity," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 18(2), pages 243-250, September.
    3. Hirst, De & Koonce, L & Simko, Pj, 1995. "Investor Reactions To Financial Analysts Research Reports," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 335-351.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    2. Ziliotto, Arianna & Serati, Massimiliano, 2015. "The semi-strong efficiency debate: In search of a new testing framework," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 412-438.
    3. Jean-Yves Filbien & Fabien Labondance, 2012. "Reactions Des Marches D’Actions De La Zone Euro Aux Annonces Non Anticipees De La Bce," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 55(2), pages 179-204.
    4. Imane El Ouadghiri & Valérie Mignon & Nicolas Boitout, 2016. "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond returns," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-53, February.
    5. Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani, 2011. "Monetary Shocks or Real Shocks, Which matters the most for Share Prices," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 2(6), pages 246-251.
    6. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    7. Imane El Ouadghiri & Valerie Mignon & Nicolas Boitout, 2014. "On the impact of macroeconomic news surprises on Treasury-bond yields," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-20, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Tan, Oon Geok & Gannon, Gerard L., 2002. "'Information effect' of economic news: SPI futures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 467-489.
    9. Hao, Rubin & Liao, Guanmin & Ding, Wenhong & Guan, Wei, 2022. "The informativeness of regional GDP announcements: Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-99.
    10. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    11. Stolowy, Hervé & Paugam, Luc & Gendron, Yves, 2022. "Competing for narrative authority in capital markets: Activist short sellers vs. financial analysts," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    12. Bernile, Gennaro & Hu, Jianfeng & Tang, Yuehua, 2016. "Can information be locked up? Informed trading ahead of macro-news announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 496-520.
    13. Širůček, Martin, 2015. "Kauzalní vztah peněžní nabídky a amerického akciového trhu [Money supply and US stock market causality]," MPRA Paper 66357, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Aug 2015.
    14. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriele M. Lepori, 2022. "Do financial markets respond to macroeconomic surprises? Evidence from the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2329-2371, May.
    15. Libby, Robert & Bloomfield, Robert & Nelson, Mark W., 2002. "Experimental research in financial accounting," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 775-810, November.
    16. Yingli Wang & Chang Lu & Xiaoguang Yang & Qingpeng Zhang, 2023. "Asymmetric responses to Purchasing Managers' Index announcements in China's stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2937-2955, July.
    17. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano, 2019. "Uncertainty in the Hot Hand Fallacy: Detecting Streaky Alternatives to Random Bernoulli Sequences," Papers 1908.01406, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    18. Shazia Ghani, 2011. "A re-visit to Minsky after 2007 financial meltdown," Post-Print halshs-01027435, HAL.
    19. Steininger, Lea & Hesse, Casimir, 2024. "Buying into new ideas: The ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 357, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    20. Christiane Goodfellow & Dirk Schiereck & Steffen Wippler, 2013. "Are behavioural finance equity funds a superior investment? A note on fund performance and market efficiency," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(2), pages 111-119, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sjobre:v:52:y:2000:i:2:d:10.1007_bf03372611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.