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Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Average Causal Mediation Effects with Time-Varying Treatments and Mediators: Investigating the Underlying Mechanisms of Kindergarten Retention Policy

Author

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  • Soojin Park

    (University of California, Riverside)

  • Peter M. Steiner

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

  • David Kaplan

    (University of Wisconsin-Madison)

Abstract

Considering that causal mechanisms unfold over time, it is important to investigate the mechanisms over time, taking into account the time-varying features of treatments and mediators. However, identification of the average causal mediation effect in the presence of time-varying treatments and mediators is often complicated by time-varying confounding. This article aims to provide a novel approach to uncovering causal mechanisms in time-varying treatments and mediators in the presence of time-varying confounding. We provide different strategies for identification and sensitivity analysis under homogeneous and heterogeneous effects. Homogeneous effects are those in which each individual experiences the same effect, and heterogeneous effects are those in which the effects vary over individuals. Most importantly, we provide an alternative definition of average causal mediation effects that evaluates a partial mediation effect; the effect that is mediated by paths other than through an intermediate confounding variable. We argue that this alternative definition allows us to better assess at least a part of the mediated effect and provides meaningful and unique interpretations. A case study using ECLS-K data that evaluates kindergarten retention policy is offered to illustrate our proposed approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Soojin Park & Peter M. Steiner & David Kaplan, 2018. "Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Average Causal Mediation Effects with Time-Varying Treatments and Mediators: Investigating the Underlying Mechanisms of Kindergarten Retention Policy," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 83(2), pages 298-320, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:psycho:v:83:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11336-018-9606-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11336-018-9606-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R. M. Daniel & B. L. De Stavola & S. N. Cousens & S. Vansteelandt, 2015. "Causal mediation analysis with multiple mediators," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Hong, Guanglei & Raudenbush, Stephen W., 2006. "Evaluating Kindergarten Retention Policy: A Case Study of Causal Inference for Multilevel Observational Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 901-910, September.
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    4. Sara Geneletti, 2007. "Identifying direct and indirect effects in a non‐counterfactual framework," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 199-215, April.
    5. Kosuke Imai & Marc Ratkovic, 2015. "Robust Estimation of Inverse Probability Weights for Marginal Structural Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(511), pages 1013-1023, September.
    6. Imai, Kosuke & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2013. "Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Causal Mechanisms: Revisiting Evidence from Framing Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 141-171, April.
    7. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881.
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    Cited by:

    1. Soojin Park & Kevin M. Esterling, 2021. "Sensitivity Analysis for Pretreatment Confounding With Multiple Mediators," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 46(1), pages 85-108, February.
    2. Alessandro Magrini, 2022. "Mediation analysis in recursive systems of distributed-lag linear regressions," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1535-1555, June.

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