IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v99y2019i1d10.1007_s11069-019-03746-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Ryota Nakamura

    (Niigata University)

  • Martin Mäll

    (Waseda University)

  • Tomoya Shibayama

    (Waseda University)

Abstract

Due to gradual sea level rise and changes in the climate system, coastal vulnerability to storm surge hazards is expected to increase in some areas. Studies regarding the effect of storm surge inundation on buildings and human lives, especially when it comes to relatively low-threat level events, have been few, however. In this research, storm surge load impact around coastal residential areas was quantitatively assessed, through fine-resolution numerical modelling. Meso- and street-scale simulation results for a storm surge event in Nemuro, Japan, were comprehensively validated against observations and field measurements, and the simulation results showed good accuracy for sea level, significant wave height and inundation area. A fine-resolution, street-scale coastal flood simulation was carried out with individual and grouped buildings, created with a building block model, and the results showed the significant role of buildings by realistically capturing inundation dynamics. Hydrodynamic results showed that coastal flood impact on buildings was insignificant (consistent with surveys). Lastly, the potential flood impact on people in the streets was investigated, using five human instability equations, where the most pessimistic results showed average values between 0.0 and 0.2 (max 0.6–0.7), and slightly below 0.4 for children and the elderly, respectively. These values indicated that threat levels during the Nemuro storm event were low, which corresponded with observations (no fatalities). This study framework could be applied wherever an accurate local storm surge threat estimate was required.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryota Nakamura & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2019. "Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(1), pages 391-422, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03746-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03746-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03746-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03746-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Davor Kvočka & Roger A. Falconer & Michaela Bray, 2016. "Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1569-1599, December.
    2. Barbara Neumann & Athanasios T Vafeidis & Juliane Zimmermann & Robert J Nicholls, 2015. "Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-34, March.
    3. Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Takumu Iwamoto, 2016. "Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1645-1681, July.
    4. Khandker Tasnim & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Hiroshi Takagi & Koichiro Ohira & Ryota Nakamura, 2015. "Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1619-1647, January.
    5. Zhaoqing Yang & Taiping Wang & Ruby Leung & Kathy Hibbard & Tony Janetos & Ian Kraucunas & Jennie Rice & Benjamin Preston & Tom Wilbanks, 2014. "A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1771-1794, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kai Yin & Sudong Xu & Quan Zhao & Nini Zhang & Mengqi Li, 2021. "Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 755-784, October.
    2. Thit Oo Kyaw & Miguel Esteban & Martin Mäll & Tomoya Shibayama, 2021. "Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 1797-1818, April.
    3. Zhaoqing Yang & Sourav Taraphdar & Taiping Wang & L. Ruby Leung & Molly Grear, 2016. "Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1161-1184, November.
    4. Martin Mäll & Ryota Nakamura & Ülo Suursaar & Tomoya Shibayama, 2020. "Pseudo-climate modelling study on projected changes in extreme extratropical cyclones, storm waves and surges under CMIP5 multi-model ensemble: Baltic Sea perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 67-99, May.
    5. Martin Mäll & Ülo Suursaar & Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1119-1144, December.
    6. Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Takumu Iwamoto, 2016. "Future typhoon and storm surges under different global warming scenarios: case study of typhoon Haiyan (2013)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1645-1681, July.
    7. Xinyu Jiang & Nobuhito Mori & Hirokazu Tatano & Lijiao Yang, 2019. "Simulation-Based Exceedance Probability Curves to Assess the Economic Impact of Storm Surge Inundations due to Climate Change: A Case Study in Ise Bay, Japan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, February.
    8. Sem J. Duijndam & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Liselotte C. Hagedoorn & Philip Bubeck & Toon Haer & My Pham & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Drivers of migration intentions in coastal Vietnam under increased flood risk from sea level rise," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-22, February.
    9. Philip Antwi-Agyei & Frank Baffour-Ata & Sarah Koomson & Nana Kwame Kyeretwie & Nana Barimah Nti & Afia Oforiwaa Owusu & Fukaiha Abdul Razak, 2023. "Drivers and coping mechanisms for floods: experiences of residents in urban Kumasi, Ghana," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2477-2500, March.
    10. Anirban Mukhopadhyay & Sugata Hazra & Debasish Mitra & C. Hutton & Abhra Chanda & Sandip Mukherjee, 2016. "Characterizing the multi-risk with respect to plausible natural hazards in the Balasore coast, Odisha, India: a multi-criteria analysis (MCA) appraisal," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1495-1513, February.
    11. Islam, Md. Mofakkarul & Sarker, Md. Asaduzzaman & Al Mamun, Md. Abdullah & Mamun-ur-Rashid, Md. & Roy, Debashis, 2021. "Stepping Up versus Stepping Out: On the outcomes and drivers of two alternative climate change adaptation strategies of smallholders," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Ke Wang & Yongsheng Yang & Genserik Reniers & Quanyi Huang, 2021. "A study into the spatiotemporal distribution of typhoon storm surge disasters in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1237-1256, August.
    13. Domingues, Rita & Costas, Susana & Jesus, Saul & Ferreira, Óscar, 2017. "SENSE OF PLACE, RISK PERCEPTIONS AND PREPAREDNESS OF A COASTAL POPULATION AT RISK (Faro Beach, Portugal): A qualitative content analysis," Journal of Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, Cinturs - Research Centre for Tourism, Sustainability and Well-being, University of Algarve, vol. 5(3), pages 163-175.
    14. Zhibin Yang & Robert Stachler & Joshua S. Heyne, 2020. "Orthogonal Reference Surrogate Fuels for Operability Testing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-13, April.
    15. Rifat, Shaikh Abdullah Al & Liu, Weibo, 2022. "Predicting future urban growth scenarios and potential urban flood exposure using Artificial Neural Network-Markov Chain model in Miami Metropolitan Area," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    17. Jamero, Ma. Laurice & Esteban, Miguel & Chadwick, Christopher & Onuki, Motoharu, 2019. "Rethinking the Limits of Climate Change Adaptation," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 584, Asian Development Bank.
    18. D. J. Rasmussen & Scott Kulp & Robert E. Kopp & Michael Oppenheimer & Benjamin H. Strauss, 2022. "Popular extreme sea level metrics can better communicate impacts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-17, February.
    19. Na Li & Shenglian Guo & Feng Xiong & Jun Wang & Yuzuo Xie, 2022. "Comparative Study of Flood Coincidence Risk Estimation Methods in the Mainstream and its Tributaries," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 683-698, January.
    20. Gelian Song & Meijuan Xia & Dahai Zhang, 2023. "Deep Reinforcement Learning for Risk and Disaster Management in Energy-Efficient Marine Ranching," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-20, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03746-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.