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Earthquake recurrence assessment of the active Shanchiao Fault in northern Taiwan

Author

Listed:
  • Yun Xu

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • J. P. Wang

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

The Shanchiao Fault is an active normal fault located in the Taipei metropolis, northern Taiwan. Faulting activities have been observed from both the long-term geological data and the short-term GPS surface deformation along the fault. Particularly, with recent studies suggesting the potential of triggering an Mw 7.0-plus earthquake, the Shanchiao Fault is posing a direct seismic threat to the most important, densely populated Taipei metropolitan area in Taiwan. As a result, this study aims to evaluate the earthquake recurrence probability of the Shanchiao Fault, in an attempt to estimate the seismic hazard and help in decision-making for the Taiwan government. Given the capability of capturing the stochastic nature of tectonic stress accumulating, this study used the Brownian model to calculate the earthquake recurrence of the Shanchiao Fault. From the analysis, the recurrence probabilities of the Shanchiao Fault are determined at 8.3 and 17.4% for the next 50 and 100 years, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun Xu & J. P. Wang, 2017. "Earthquake recurrence assessment of the active Shanchiao Fault in northern Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(2), pages 835-851, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2894-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2894-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jui-Pin Wang & Chung-Han Chan & Yih-Min Wu, 2011. "The distribution of annual maximum earthquake magnitude around Taiwan and its application in the estimation of catastrophic earthquake recurrence probability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 553-570, October.
    2. Jim Gatheral & Alexander Schied, 2011. "Optimal Trade Execution Under Geometric Brownian Motion In The Almgren And Chriss Framework," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(03), pages 353-368.
    3. J. Wang & H. Kuo-Chen, 2015. "On the use of AFOSM to estimate major earthquake probabilities in Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2577-2587, February.
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