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Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results

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  • Zhengyin Zhou
  • Xiaoling Wang
  • Ruirui Sun
  • Xuefei Ao
  • Xiaopei Sun
  • Mingrui Song

Abstract

The present model and methodology described in Part I of this work are applied to perform a comprehensive risk analysis of the dam-break flood of five reservoirs in the Haihe River Basin, China. The results indicate that the three-dimensional numerical simulation considering complex terrain can reflect the characteristics of flood routing and the three-dimensional phenomena. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that the risk grades of the consequences induced by a gradual or instantaneous dam break of the Dongwushi reservoir are extremely serious, as determined through the attribute synthetic approach. The results obtained from ranking the risk by the technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution method are that the Dongwushi reservoir has the most serious consequences when the dam breaks followed by the Lincheng reservoir, the Miaogong reservoir and the Yunzhou reservoir, and the Youyi reservoir has the least severe consequences. Though the ranking of the relatively comprehensive risk coincides with that of the consequences, the dam safety measured by the dam failure probability plays an important role in ranking the risk. A sensitivity analysis is performed by individually increasing the weight of each criterion by 20 %, and the ranking order is not changed, suggesting that the evaluation model is reasonable, stable and reliable. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengyin Zhou & Xiaoling Wang & Ruirui Sun & Xuefei Ao & Xiaopei Sun & Mingrui Song, 2014. "Study of the comprehensive risk analysis of dam-break flooding based on the numerical simulation of flood routing. Part II: Model application and results," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 675-700, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:72:y:2014:i:2:p:675-700
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-1029-8
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    1. Dongjing Huang & Zhongbo Yu & Yiping Li & Dawei Han & Lili Zhao & Qi Chu, 2017. "Calculation method and application of loss of life caused by dam break in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 39-57, January.
    2. Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf & Alfred Kalyanapu & Eun-Sung Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the Effects of Inundation Duration and Velocity on Selection of Flood Management Alternatives Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2543-2561, June.
    3. Ahmet Ozan Celik & Volkan Kiricci & Canberk Insel, 2017. "Reassessment of the flood damage at a river diversion hydropower plant site: lessons learned from a case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 833-847, March.
    4. Chong-Xun Mo & Gui-Yan Mo & Liu Peng & Qing Yang & Xin-Rong Zhu & Qing-Ling Jiang & Ju-Liang Jin, 2019. "Quantitative Vulnerability Model of Earth Dam Overtopping and its Application," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1801-1815, March.
    5. Alireza Khoshkonesh & Blaise Nsom & Farhad Bahmanpouri & Fariba Ahmadi Dehrashid & Atefeh Adeli, 2021. "Numerical Study of the Dynamics and Structure of a Partial Dam-Break Flow Using the VOF Method," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(5), pages 1513-1528, March.
    6. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.
    7. Rui Liu & Yun Chen & Jianping Wu & Lei Gao & Damian Barrett & Tingbao Xu & Xiaojuan Li & Linyi Li & Chang Huang & Jia Yu, 2017. "Integrating Entropy‐Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 756-773, April.
    8. Guanjie He & Junrui Chai & Yuan Qin & Zengguang Xu & Shouyi Li, 2020. "Coupled Model of Variable Fuzzy Sets and the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Application to the Social and Environmental Impact Evaluation of Dam Breaks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(9), pages 2677-2697, July.
    9. Alaa Ahmed & Guna Hewa & Abdullah Alrajhi, 2021. "Flood susceptibility mapping using a geomorphometric approach in South Australian basins," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(1), pages 629-653, March.
    10. Xiaoling Wang & Wenlong Chen & Zhengyin Zhou & Yushan Zhu & Cheng Wang & Zhen Liu, 2017. "Three-dimensional flood routing of a dam break based on a high-precision digital model of a dense urban area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(3), pages 1147-1174, April.

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