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Failure risk assessment of interdependent infrastructures against earthquake, a Petri net approach: case study—power and water distribution networks

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  • Babak Omidvar
  • Mohammad Hojjati Malekshah
  • Hamed Omidvar

Abstract

Metropolitan areas consist of complicated systems of interconnected infrastructures that are highly interdependent. Disruption of one infrastructure may induce disruption in other interconnected ones. The results from analysis of one infrastructure as an independent system are not realistic without considering the behavior of other interconnected infrastructures. Consequently, the study of the interdependencies among critical infrastructures is important for addressing the cascading effects of a failed infrastructure on the entire network to properly model its performance and help the disaster management team in decision making. In this study, the extended Petri net and Markov chain have been used to demonstrate the power and water infrastructure interdependency with a case study of one of the municipal districts of metropolitan Tehran, the capital of Iran. In this research, three cases have been assessed quantitatively: (1) the intra-dependency effects of different components in each network, (2) the interdependency effects between the considered critical infrastructures and (3) the behavior of the water network considering intra- and interdependency, when the power network fails. The analyses show that considering the mentioned interdependencies has a major influence on their performance simulations and assessment of their exact vulnerability. It is concluded that the failure probability of the water network that is dependent on the failed power network is 1.66 of the independent water network in the studied region. Eventually, the results of the research could be used in design, restoration and disaster management planning for safety assessment of critical infrastructures. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Babak Omidvar & Mohammad Hojjati Malekshah & Hamed Omidvar, 2014. "Failure risk assessment of interdependent infrastructures against earthquake, a Petri net approach: case study—power and water distribution networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1971-1993, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:3:p:1971-1993
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0990-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wai-Ki Ching & Michael K. Ng, 2006. "Markov Chains: Models, Algorithms and Applications," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-29337-0, September.
    2. Benoit Robert, 2004. "A method for the study of cascading effects within lifeline networks," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 86-99.
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    Cited by:

    1. Suo, Weilan & Wang, Lin & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Probabilistic risk assessment for interdependent critical infrastructures: A scenario-driven dynamic stochastic model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).

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