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Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation

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  • Ju-Liang Jin
  • Yi-Ming Wei
  • Le-Le Zou
  • Li Liu
  • Juan Fu

Abstract

To deal effectively with the evaluation problem of natural disaster risk system affected by many uncertain factors, a multivariate connection number expression is presented. This expression is based on the index samples and evaluation grade criterions of natural disaster risk system and is capable of describing the hierarchy property and fuzziness of membership relationship between index samples and evaluation grade criterions. In this proposed method, the fuzzy evaluation grade criterion problem is resolved by combining triangular fuzzy numbers with multivariate connection number theory, and triangular fuzzy numbers are used to express the discrepancy degree coefficients of connection number and evaluation index weights. Accordingly, a connection number-based evaluation method for the natural disaster system of China (named CN-TFN for short) is established using triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation. The application results show that the spatial distribution of natural disaster risk grades of China has the trend of aggrandizement from west to east of China. The economically developed and densely populated coastal areas are very likely to have a high level of natural disaster risk grade or above; thus, these areas are the key regions of the natural disaster risk management of China. The results also show that the CN-TFN is able to reflect practical conditions of the evaluation problem of natural disaster system and to provide more reliability information as compared to the existing evaluation methods. This is as a result of its comprehensive usage of various information of subjective and objective uncertainties in the evaluation process of natural disaster risk system and its expression by confidence intervals. Due to the simplicity and generalization, the CN-TFM is applicable to comprehensive risk grade evaluation of various natural disaster systems. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Ju-Liang Jin & Yi-Ming Wei & Le-Le Zou & Li Liu & Juan Fu, 2012. "Risk evaluation of China’s natural disaster systems: an approach based on triangular fuzzy numbers and stochastic simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(1), pages 129-139, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:62:y:2012:i:1:p:129-139
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-0005-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yue Zhao & Zaiwu Gong & Wenhao Wang & Kai Luo, 2014. "The comprehensive risk evaluation on rainstorm and flood disaster losses in China mainland from 2004 to 2009: based on the triangular gray correlation theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1001-1016, March.
    2. Naiming Xie & Jianghui Xin & Sifeng Liu, 2014. "China’s regional meteorological disaster loss analysis and evaluation based on grey cluster model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1067-1089, March.
    3. Zaiwu Gong & Yue Zhao & Xinming Ge, 2014. "Efficiency assessment of the energy consumption and economic indicators in Beijing under the influence of short-term climatic factors: based on data envelopment analysis methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1145-1157, March.
    4. Mengyao Gu & Youling Chen, 2019. "Two improvements of similarity-based residual life prediction methods," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 303-315, January.
    5. Xiaoli Li & Zhiqiang Li & Jiansi Yang & Yaohui Liu & Bo Fu & Wenhua Qi & Xiwei Fan, 2018. "Spatiotemporal characteristics of earthquake disaster losses in China from 1993 to 2016," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(2), pages 843-865, November.
    6. Li Liao & Jianzhong Zhou & Qiang Zou, 2013. "Weighted fuzzy kernel-clustering algorithm with adaptive differential evolution and its application on flood classification," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(1), pages 279-293, October.
    7. Yuanyuan He & Zaiwu Gong, 2014. "China’s regional rainstorm floods disaster evaluation based on grey incidence multiple-attribute decision model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1125-1144, March.
    8. Jun He & Xiao-Hua Yang & Jian-Qiang Li & Ju-Liang Jin & Yi-Ming Wei & Xiao-Juan Chen, 2015. "Spatiotemporal variation of meteorological droughts based on the daily comprehensive drought index in the Haihe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 199-217, February.
    9. Ming-Wu Wang & Peng Xu & Jian Li & Kui-Yuan Zhao, 2014. "A novel set pair analysis method based on variable weights for liquefaction evaluation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1527-1534, January.
    10. Chengguang Lai & Xiaohong Chen & Xiaoyu Chen & Zhaoli Wang & Xushu Wu & Shiwei Zhao, 2015. "A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for flood risk based on the combination weight of game theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1243-1259, June.
    11. Yuanshu Jing & Jian Li & Yongyuan Weng & Jing Wang, 2014. "The assessment of drought relief by typhoon Saomai based on MODIS remote sensing data in Shanghai, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(2), pages 1215-1225, March.
    12. Tao Wang & Jian-sheng Chen & Ting Wang & Shuang Wang, 2015. "Entropy weight-set pair analysis based on tracer techniques for dam leakage investigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 747-767, March.

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