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A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain

Author

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  • Julio Mezcua
  • Juan Rueda
  • Rosa García Blanco

Abstract

In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004 ). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco ( 2009 ), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Julio Mezcua & Juan Rueda & Rosa García Blanco, 2011. "A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 1087-1108, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:1087-1108
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9819-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Julio Mezcua & Juan Rueda, 2021. "A seismicity revision and a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment using the Monte Carlo approach for the Canary Islands (Spain)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1609-1628, September.
    2. Juan Rueda & Julio Mezcua & Rosa García Blanco & Alberto Núñez & María Fernández de Villalta, 2015. "Seismic scenario including site-effect determination in Torreperogil and Sabiote, Jaén (Spain), after the 2013 earthquake sequence," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 675-697, November.
    3. J. Wang & Yih-Min Wu & Duruo Huang & Su-Chin Chang, 2014. "A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 837-850, March.
    4. J. L. Amaro-Mellado & A. Morales-Esteban & F. Martínez-Álvarez, 2018. "Mapping of seismic parameters of the Iberian Peninsula by means of a geographic information system," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 26(3), pages 739-758, September.

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