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A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan

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  • J. Wang
  • Yih-Min Wu
  • Duruo Huang
  • Su-Chin Chang

Abstract

Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M w ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude–frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg–Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire–Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake’s magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • J. Wang & Yih-Min Wu & Duruo Huang & Su-Chin Chang, 2014. "A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: including an example for Taiwan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 837-850, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:837-850
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0934-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jui-Pin Wang & Chung-Han Chan & Yih-Min Wu, 2011. "The distribution of annual maximum earthquake magnitude around Taiwan and its application in the estimation of catastrophic earthquake recurrence probability," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(1), pages 553-570, October.
    2. Julio Mezcua & Juan Rueda & Rosa García Blanco, 2011. "A new probabilistic seismic hazard study of Spain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 59(2), pages 1087-1108, November.
    3. Z. Rafi & C. Lindholm & H. Bungum & A. Laghari & N. Ahmed, 2012. "Probabilistic seismic hazard of Pakistan, Azad-Jammu and Kashmir," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1317-1354, April.
    4. P. Anbazhagan & J. Vinod & T. Sitharam, 2009. "Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(2), pages 145-166, February.
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