IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v55y2010i2p233-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Webersik
  • Miguel Esteban
  • Tomoya Shibayama

Abstract

This article estimates the non-first-order economic loss in Japan due to a future increase in tropical cyclones. One possible effect of global warming could be the increase in intensity of tropical cyclones. Using historical storm tracks between the years 1978 and 2007 and altering their intensities due to this potential increase in their intensity, this paper calculates the future potential regional GDP loss in a certain area that is affected by tropical cyclones. Most of the literature is concerned with physical damage and the loss of lives due to tropical cyclones. However, there are additional economic costs when sustained wind speeds are higher than 30 knots (55.56 km/h), a level that generally will lead to a precautionary cessation of many human activities. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, the paper calculates the potential economic costs for the year 2085 under a climate change scenario with a linear one-per cent yearly increase in CO 2 . Using a spatial distribution of economic activity in Japan, it is possible to forecast which parts of the country are likely to experience the highest loss risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Webersik & Miguel Esteban & Tomoya Shibayama, 2010. "The economic impact of future increase in tropical cyclones in Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 233-250, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:55:y:2010:i:2:p:233-250
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-010-9522-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Herminia Francisco, 2009. "Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia," EEPSEA Special and Technical Paper tp200901s1, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), revised Jan 2009.
    2. Maxx Dilley & Robert S. Chen & Uwe Deichmann & Arthur L. Lerner-Lam & Margaret Arnold, 2005. "Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7376, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Ranson & Lisa Tarquinio & Audrey Lew, 2016. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Losses," NCEE Working Paper Series 201602, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised May 2016.
    2. Oz Sahin & Sherif Mohamed, 2014. "Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a spatial–temporal assessment framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 395-414, January.
    3. Kelin Hu & Qin Chen & Sytske Kimball, 2012. "Consistency in hurricane surface wind forecasting: an improved parametric model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1029-1050, April.
    4. Martin Mäll & Ülo Suursaar & Ryota Nakamura & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(3), pages 1119-1144, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Teuku Riefky & Faizal Rahmanto Moeis & Yusuf Sofiyandi & Muhammad Adriansyah & Anas Izzuddin & Aqilah Farhani & Sendy Jasmine, 2021. "Resilient Infrastructure in Indonesia: A Way Forward," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202164, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
    2. Douglas Bardsley, 2015. "Limits to adaptation or a second modernity? Responses to climate change risk in the context of failing socio-ecosystems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 41-55, February.
    3. Alex Sherbinin, 2014. "Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 23-37, March.
    4. Busby, Joshua & Smith, Todd G. & Krishnan, Nisha & Wight, Charles & Vallejo-Gutierrez, Santiago, 2018. "In harm's way: Climate security vulnerability in Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 88-118.
    5. Xiaobing Yu & Hong Chen & Chenliang Li, 2019. "Evaluate Typhoon Disasters in 21st Century Maritime Silk Road by Super-Efficiency DEA," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-10, May.
    6. Nicolás Bronfman & Pamela Cisternas & Esperanza López-Vázquez & Luis Cifuentes, 2016. "Trust and risk perception of natural hazards: implications for risk preparedness in Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 307-327, March.
    7. Dapeng Huang & Renhe Zhang & Zhiguo Huo & Fei Mao & Youhao E & Wei Zheng, 2012. "An assessment of multidimensional flood vulnerability at the provincial scale in China based on the DEA method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1575-1586, November.
    8. Viet-Ha Nhu & Ataollah Shirzadi & Himan Shahabi & Sushant K. Singh & Nadhir Al-Ansari & John J. Clague & Abolfazl Jaafari & Wei Chen & Shaghayegh Miraki & Jie Dou & Chinh Luu & Krzysztof Górski & Binh, 2020. "Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparison between Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine Algorithms," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(8), pages 1-30, April.
    9. Aubin VIGNOBOUL, 2022. "The winds of inequalities: How hurricanes impact inequalities at the macro level?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2986, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Felkner, John S. & Lee, Hyun & Shaikh, Sabina & Kolata, Alan & Binford, Michael, 2022. "The interrelated impacts of credit access, market access and forest proximity on livelihood strategies in Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    11. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    12. Tsegaye Tadesse & Menghestab Haile & Gabriel Senay & Brian D. Wardlow & Cody L. Knutson, 2008. "The need for integration of drought monitoring tools for proactive food security management in sub‐Saharan Africa," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 265-279, November.
    13. Jolanta Kryspin-Watson & John Pollner & Sonja Nieuwejaar, 2008. "Climate Change Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Reports 25985, The World Bank Group.
    14. Fatemeh Jalayer & Raffaele Risi & Francesco Paola & Maurizio Giugni & Gaetano Manfredi & Paolo Gasparini & Maria Topa & Nebyou Yonas & Kumelachew Yeshitela & Alemu Nebebe & Gina Cavan & Sarah Lindley , 2014. "Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 73(2), pages 975-1001, September.
    15. Faraz S. Tehrani & Michele Calvello & Zhongqiang Liu & Limin Zhang & Suzanne Lacasse, 2022. "Machine learning and landslide studies: recent advances and applications," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(2), pages 1197-1245, November.
    16. Nisar Ali Shah & Muhammad Shafique & Muhammad Ishfaq & Kamil Faisal & Mark Van der Meijde, 2023. "Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Thilini Mahanama & Abootaleb Shirvani & Svetlozar Rachev, 2022. "A Natural Disasters Index," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 24(2), pages 263-284, April.
    18. Stefan Kienberger & Thomas Blaschke & Rukhe Zaidi, 2013. "A framework for spatio-temporal scales and concepts from different disciplines: the ‘vulnerability cube’," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1343-1369, September.
    19. Mohammed M. Al-Humaiqani & Sami G. Al-Ghamdi, 2023. "Assessing the Built Environment’s Reflectivity, Flexibility, Resourcefulness, and Rapidity Resilience Qualities against Climate Change Impacts from the Perspective of Different Stakeholders," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-30, March.
    20. Chia-Lee Yang & Benjamin J. C. Yuan & Chi-Yo Huang, 2015. "Key Determinant Derivations for Information Technology Disaster Recovery Site Selection by the Multi-Criterion Decision Making Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-40, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:55:y:2010:i:2:p:233-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.