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Evolution of double vortices induce tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja over Flores, Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Erma Yulihastin

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Ankiq Taofiqurohman

    (Padjajaran University)

  • Ibnu Fathrio

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Fadli Nauval

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Dita Fatria Andarini

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Rahaden Bagas Hatmaja

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Akhmad Fahim

    (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics)

  • Namira Nasywa Perdani

    (Padjajaran University)

  • Haries Satyawardhana

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • M. Furqon Azis Ismail

    (National Research and Innovation Agency
    GEOMAR Helmholtz)

  • Dwiyoga Nugroho

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Suaydhi

    (National Research and Innovation Agency
    Swinburne University of Technology)

  • Iis Sofiati

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Lely Qodrita Avia

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

  • Herlina Ika Ratnawati

    (National Research and Innovation Agency)

Abstract

Over one hundred years of vigorous progress in tropical cyclone (TC) research, the genesis of the cyclone (hereafter, tropical cyclogenesis) is remarkable as a doubtful subject. Furthermore, predicting tropical cyclogenesis, particularly in the lesser latitude, remains a significant challenge. Therefore, understanding the complex interactions in developing tropical cyclogenesis over the region is vital to improving tropical cyclogenesis forecasting. Hence, the Indonesia Maritime Continent is a tropical cyclone-free region due to decreasing the Coriolis effect. However, Seroja TC hit Flores (8.6° S, 120° E), east Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia, on 4 April 2021, and was recorded as the first TC that occurred over the mainland, which brought a catastrophic disaster in the region. This study investigated the tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja by using observational and numerical studies. The results indicate that a marine heatwave and double vortices were favorable conditions that produced preconditions for developing tropical cyclogenesis over the Maluku Sea. Thus, tropical cyclogenesis is formed by the breakdown of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) associated with synoptic-scale wave train driven under the interaction of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) and equatorial Rossby waves. Moreover, our finding suggested that an extensive background cyclonic vorticity under the cold pool mechanisms is responsible for maintaining tropical cyclogenesis into a persistent Seroja TC.

Suggested Citation

  • Erma Yulihastin & Ankiq Taofiqurohman & Ibnu Fathrio & Fadli Nauval & Dita Fatria Andarini & Rahaden Bagas Hatmaja & Akhmad Fahim & Namira Nasywa Perdani & Haries Satyawardhana & M. Furqon Azis Ismail, 2023. "Evolution of double vortices induce tropical cyclogenesis of Seroja over Flores, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2675-2692, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:117:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-023-05961-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-05961-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas L. Frölicher & Erich M. Fischer & Nicolas Gruber, 2018. "Marine heatwaves under global warming," Nature, Nature, vol. 560(7718), pages 360-364, August.
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