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Randomness: off with its heads (and tails)

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  • Aleksandar Aksentijevic

    (University of Roehampton)

Abstract

Although widely investigated and used in psychology, the concept of randomness is beset with philosophical and practical difficulties. In this paper, I propose a resolution to a long-standing problem in psychological research by arguing that the inability to comprehend and produce random behavior is not caused by a defect on the part of the observer but is a consequence of conceptual confusion. Randomness describes a state of high complexity which defies analysis and understanding. The well-known biases in predictive behavior (e.g. hot-hand and gambler’s fallacy) are not caused by the observers’ inability to comprehend randomness but reflect a natural pattern-seeking response to high-complexity situations. Further, I address the circularity at the heart of the randomness debate. Replacing randomness with complexity in psychology and cognitive science would eliminate many of the current problems associated with defining, investigating and using this elusive term.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandar Aksentijevic, 2017. "Randomness: off with its heads (and tails)," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:minsoc:v:16:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11299-015-0187-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11299-015-0187-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keren, Gideon & Lewis, Charles, 1994. "The Two Fallacies of Gamblers: Type I and Type II," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 75-89, October.
    2. Grassberger, Peter, 1986. "How to measure self-generated complexity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 319-325.
    3. Boynton, David M., 2003. "Superstitious responding and frequency matching in the positive bias and gambler's fallacy effects," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 119-127, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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