IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/metcap/v24y2022i3d10.1007_s11009-021-09897-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Multinomial Approximation Approach for the Finite Time Survival Probability Under the Markov-modulated Risk Model

Author

Listed:
  • Jingchao Li

    (Shenzhen University
    Shenzhen University)

  • Bihao Su

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

  • Zhenghong Wei

    (Shenzhen University)

  • Ciyu Nie

    (Nanyang Technological University)

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the problem of computing different types of finite time survival probabilities for a Markov-Modulated risk model and a Markov-Modulated risk model with reinsurance, both with varying premium rates. We use the multinomial approximation scheme to derive an efficient recursive algorithm to compute finite time survival probabilities and finite time draw-down survival probabilities. Numerical results show that by comparing with MCMC approximation, discretize approximation and diffusion approximation methods, the proposed scheme performs accurate results in all the considered cases and with better computation efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Jingchao Li & Bihao Su & Zhenghong Wei & Ciyu Nie, 2022. "A Multinomial Approximation Approach for the Finite Time Survival Probability Under the Markov-modulated Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 2169-2194, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:24:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-021-09897-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-021-09897-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11009-021-09897-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11009-021-09897-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Jingchao & Dickson, David C.M. & Li, Shuanming, 2015. "Some ruin problems for the MAP risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    2. Ng, Andrew C.Y. & Yang, Hailiang, 2006. "On the joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin under a Markovian regime switching model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 244-266, February.
    3. Xin Zhang, 2008. "On the Ruin Problem in a Markov-Modulated Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 225-238, June.
    4. G. A. Delsing & M. R. H. Mandjes & P. J. C. Spreij & E. M. M. Winands, 2020. "Asymptotics and Approximations of Ruin Probabilities for Multivariate Risk Processes in a Markovian Environment," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 927-948, September.
    5. Dickson, David C.M. & Qazvini, Marjan, 2018. "Ruin problems in Markov-modulated risk models," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 23-48, March.
    6. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Shu, 2015. "Analysis of a drawdown-based regime-switching Lévy insurance model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-107.
    7. Chen, Mi & Yuen, Kam Chuen & Guo, Junyi, 2014. "Survival probabilities in a discrete semi-Markov risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 205-215.
    8. Dhiti Osatakul & Xueyuan Wu, 2021. "Discrete-Time Risk Models with Claim Correlated Premiums in a Markovian Environment," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, January.
    9. Lu, Yi & Li, Shuanming, 2005. "On the probability of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 522-532, December.
    10. Joshi, Mark S. & Zhu, Dan, 2016. "The Efficient Computation And The Sensitivity Analysis Of Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities And The Estimation Of Risk-Based Regulatory Capital," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(2), pages 431-467, May.
    11. De Vylder, F. & Goovaerts, M. J., 1988. "Recursive calculation of finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, January.
    12. Dickson, David C. M. & Waters, Howard R., 1991. "Recursive Calculation of Survival Probabilities," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 199-221, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. F. Baltazar-Larios & Luz Judith R. Esparza, 2022. "Statistical Inference for Partially Observed Markov-Modulated Diffusion Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 571-593, June.
    2. Chen, Mi & Yuen, Kam Chuen & Guo, Junyi, 2014. "Survival probabilities in a discrete semi-Markov risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 205-215.
    3. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 425-441, September.
    4. Boudreault, Mathieu & Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Étienne, 2014. "Risk models with dependence between claim occurrences and severities for Atlantic hurricanes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 123-132.
    5. Cardoso, Rui M. R. & R. Waters, Howard, 2003. "Recursive calculation of finite time ruin probabilities under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 659-676, December.
    6. Zhu, Jinxia & Yang, Hailiang, 2008. "Ruin theory for a Markov regime-switching model under a threshold dividend strategy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 311-318, February.
    7. G. A. Delsing & M. R. H. Mandjes & P. J. C. Spreij & E. M. M. Winands, 2020. "Asymptotics and Approximations of Ruin Probabilities for Multivariate Risk Processes in a Markovian Environment," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 927-948, September.
    8. Li Qin & Susan M. Pitts, 2012. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Finite-Time Survival Probability with Zero Initial Capital in the Classical Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 919-936, December.
    9. Cossette, Helene & Marceau, Etienne, 2000. "The discrete-time risk model with correlated classes of business," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 133-149, May.
    10. Ehyter Matías Martín-González & Antonio Murillo-Salas & Henry Pantí, 2022. "Gerber-Shiu Function for a Class of Markov-Modulated Lévy Risk Processes with Two-Sided Jumps," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2779-2800, December.
    11. Gajek, Lesław & Rudź, Marcin, 2018. "Banach Contraction Principle and ruin probabilities in regime-switching models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 45-53.
    12. Xin Zhang, 2008. "On the Ruin Problem in a Markov-Modulated Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 225-238, June.
    13. Egidio dos Reis, Alfredo D., 2000. "On the moments of ruin and recovery times," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 331-343, December.
    14. Hyunjoo Yoo & Bara Kim & Jeongsim Kim & Jiwook Jang, 2020. "Transform approach for discounted aggregate claims in a risk model with descendant claims," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 293(1), pages 175-192, October.
    15. Andrius Grigutis & Jonas Šiaulys, 2020. "Ultimate Time Survival Probability in Three-Risk Discrete Time Risk Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    16. Dickson, David C. M. & Waters, Howard R., 1996. "Reinsurance and ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 61-80, December.
    17. Stéphane Loisel & Claude Lefèvre, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Post-Print hal-00201377, HAL.
    18. Frey, Andreas & Schmidt, Volker, 1996. "Taylor-series expansion for multivariate characteristics of classical risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12, May.
    19. Wang, Guanqing & Wang, Guojing & Yang, Hailiang, 2016. "On a multi-dimensional risk model with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 73-83.
    20. Mijatović, Aleksandar & Vidmar, Matija & Jacka, Saul, 2015. "Markov chain approximations to scale functions of Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(10), pages 3932-3957.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:24:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-021-09897-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.