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Worst-Case Scenario Portfolio Optimization: a New Stochastic Control Approach

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  • Ralf Korn
  • Olaf Menkens

Abstract

We consider the determination of portfolio processes yielding the highest worst-case bound for the expected utility from final wealth if the stock price may have uncertain (down) jumps. The optimal portfolios are derived as solutions of non-linear differential equations which itself are consequences of a Bellman principle for worst-case bounds. A particular application of our setting is to model crash scenarios where both the number and the height of the crash are uncertain but bounded. Also the situation of changing market coefficients after a possible crash is analyzed. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Korn & Olaf Menkens, 2005. "Worst-Case Scenario Portfolio Optimization: a New Stochastic Control Approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 62(1), pages 123-140, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:mathme:v:62:y:2005:i:1:p:123-140
    DOI: 10.1007/s00186-005-0444-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. A Chunxiang & Shao Yi, 2018. "Worst-Case Investment Strategy with Delay," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 35-57, February.
    2. Revaz Tevzadze & Teimuraz Toronjadze & Tamaz Uzunashvili, 2013. "Robust utility maximization for a diffusion market model with misspecified coefficients," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 535-563, July.
    3. Christoph Belak & Sören Christensen & Olaf Menkens, 2016. "Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization In A Market With Bubbles," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(02), pages 1-36, March.
    4. Frank Thomas Seifried, 2010. "Optimal Investment for Worst-Case Crash Scenarios: A Martingale Approach," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(3), pages 559-579, August.
    5. Xiang Lin & Chunhong Zhang & Tak Siu, 2012. "Stochastic differential portfolio games for an insurer in a jump-diffusion risk process," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 75(1), pages 83-100, February.
    6. Sascha Desmettre & Sebastian Merkel & Annalena Mickel & Alexander Steinicke, 2023. "Worst-Case Optimal Investment in Incomplete Markets," Papers 2311.10021, arXiv.org.
    7. Baltas, I. & Dopierala, L. & Kolodziejczyk, K. & Szczepański, M. & Weber, G.-W. & Yannacopoulos, A.N., 2022. "Optimal management of defined contribution pension funds under the effect of inflation, mortality and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1162-1174.
    8. Tina Engler & Ralf Korn, 2014. "Worst-Case Portfolio Optimization under Stochastic Interest Rate Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Belak, Christoph & Christensen, Sören & Menkens, Olaf, 2014. "Worst-case optimal investment with a random number of crashes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-148.
    10. Engler, Tina & Korn, Ralf, 2014. "Worst-case portfolio optimization under stochastic interest rate risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(4), pages 469-488.
    11. Ralf Korn, 2008. "Optimal portfolios: new variations of an old theme," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 289-304, October.
    12. Alexander Schied, 2008. "Robust optimal control for a consumption-investment problem," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 67(1), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Ralf Korn & Elisabeth Leoff, 2019. "Multi-Asset Worst-Case Optimal Portfolios," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(04), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Lihua Chen & Ralf Korn, 2019. "Worst-case portfolio optimization in discrete time," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 90(2), pages 197-227, October.

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