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Optimal lockdown and social welfare

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre Pestieau

    (University of Liege
    CORE)

  • Gregory Ponthiere

    (Collège Dupriez)

Abstract

This paper examines the robustness of the optimal lockdown strategy to the postulated social welfare criterion. We show that utilitarianism can, under some conditions, imply a COVID-19 variant of Parfit’s (1984) Repugnant Conclusion: for any (interior) lockdown with life periods of low quality, there must be a stricter lockdown that is regarded as better, even though this reduces the quality of life periods even more. On the contrary, the ex post egalitarian criterion (giving priority to the worst-off ex post) implies zero lockdown. Varying between its minimal and its maximal levels, the optimal lockdown is not robust to the postulated ethical criterion. We also identify a general ethical dilemma between the goal of saving lives (modeled by the Survivors Number Count axiom) and the goal of giving priority to the worst-off (Hammond Equity).

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2022. "Optimal lockdown and social welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 241-268, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:35:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-021-00867-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-021-00867-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. de la Croix, David & Doepke, Matthias, 2021. "A soul’s view of the optimal population problem," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 98-108.
    2. Charles Shaw & Silvio Vanadia, 2022. "Utilitarianism on the front lines: COVID-19, public ethics, and the "hidden assumption" problem," Papers 2205.01957, arXiv.org.
    3. Roland Pongou & Guy Tchuente & Jean-Baptiste Tondji, 2023. "Optimal interventions in networks during a pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 847-883, April.
    4. Keiichi Morimoto & Shiba Suzuki, 2022. "Ambiguity in a pandemic recession, asset prices, and lockdown policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(5), pages 1039-1070, October.
    5. Yu Pang, 2022. "A theory of fiscal policy response to an epidemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(9), pages 2050-2071, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Lockdown; Social welfare; Utilitarianism; Egalitarianism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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