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Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for `initial' fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach


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  • Abul M. M. Masih

    (School of Finance and Business Economics, Faculty of Business, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup Campus, Perth WA 6027, Australia (e-mail:; Fax: +)

  • Rumi Masih

    (Faculty of Economics and Politics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 9DD, England)


This study is the first attempt at placing the analysis of fertility in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system. The analysis is based on the application of the following recently developed dynamic time series techniques: cointegration, vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions and the impulse response functions. The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied. However, in the short to longer term, our findings, although not fully supportive of any particular hypothesis, appear to be broadly consistent more with the hypothesis emphasising the critical role played by the `ideational' or diffusion forces along with the demographic variables in ensuring `initial' fertility decline than with the conventional `structural' hypothesis emphasising a significant socio-economic structural change as a pre-condition for `initial' fertility decline.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (1999)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 463-487

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:12:y:1999:i:3:p:463-487

Note: Received: 7 April 1995/Accepted: 15 May 1998
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Keywords: Fertility · vector error-correction model · variance decomposition;

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Cited by:
  1. Doran, Justin, 2012. "An analysis of the interdependence of demographic factors, labour effort and economic growth in Ireland," MPRA Paper 48266, University Library of Munich, Germany.


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