IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v43y2019i3d10.1007_s12197-018-9455-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic dividend discount model: covariance of random stock prices

Author

Listed:
  • Arianna Agosto

    (Banca Carige SpA)

  • Alessandra Mainini

    (Universitá Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Enrico Moretto

    (Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria
    CNR-IMATI)

Abstract

The price of common stocks, defined as the sum of all future discounted dividends, is at the heart of both the dividend discount models (DDM) and the stochastic DDM (SDDM). Gordon and Shapiro (Manag Sci 3:102–110 1956) assume a deterministic and constant dividends’ growth rate, whereas Hurley and Johnson (Financ Anal J 4:50–54 1994, J Portf Manag 25(1)27–31 1998) and Yao (J Portf Manag 23(4)99–103 1997) introduce randomness by letting the growth rate be a finite-state random variable and random dividends behave in a Markovian fashion. In this second case expected stock price is determined, but what if higher-order moments are needed? In order to address a number of financial topics, the present contribution presents an explicit formula for the covariance between (possibly) correlated stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Arianna Agosto & Alessandra Mainini & Enrico Moretto, 2019. "Stochastic dividend discount model: covariance of random stock prices," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 552-568, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:43:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-018-9455-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-018-9455-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-018-9455-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-018-9455-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arianna Agosto & Enrico Moretto, 2015. "Variance matters (in stochastic dividend discount models)," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 283-295, May.
    2. Dimitrios Koutmos, 2015. "Is there a Positive Risk†Return Tradeoff? A Forward†Looking Approach to Measuring the Equity Premium," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(5), pages 974-1013, November.
    3. Polk, Christopher & Thompson, Samuel & Vuolteenaho, Tuomo, 2006. "Cross-sectional forecasts of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 101-141, July.
    4. Myron J. Gordon & Eli Shapiro, 1956. "Capital Equipment Analysis: The Required Rate of Profit," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 102-110, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guglielmo D'Amico & Riccardo De Blasis, 2020. "A review of the Dividend Discount Model: from deterministic to stochastic models," Papers 2001.00465, arXiv.org.
    2. Battulga Gankhuu, 2023. "Parameter Estimation Methods of Required Rate of Return," Papers 2305.19708, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Battulga Gankhuu, 2022. "Augmented Dynamic Gordon Growth Model," Papers 2201.06012, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    2. Guglielmo D'Amico & Riccardo De Blasis, 2020. "A review of the Dividend Discount Model: from deterministic to stochastic models," Papers 2001.00465, arXiv.org.
    3. Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016. "Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
    4. Eero Pätäri & Timo Leivo, 2017. "A Closer Look At Value Premium: Literature Review And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 79-168, February.
    5. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    6. Fernando M. Duarte & Carlo Rosa, 2015. "The equity risk premium: a review of models," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 2, pages 39-57.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/9153 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ivan E. Brick & Hong-Yi Chen & Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Cheng-Few Lee, 2016. "A comparison of alternative models for estimating firm’s growth rate," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 369-393, August.
    9. A. Bruggeman & M. Hradisky & V. Périlleux, 2005. "Share prices, house prices and monetary policy," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 65-78, September.
    10. Chen Xiang LIU & Mohamed El Hedi AROURI, 2008. "Stock craze: an empirical analysis of PER in Chinese equity market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17.
    11. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. Ralf Diedrich & Stefan Dierkes & Hans-Christian Gröger, 2022. "A note on the cost of capital with fixed payout ratios," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1559-1575, November.
    13. Philipp Krüger & Augustin Landier & David Thesmar, 2015. "The WACC Fallacy: The Real Effects of Using a Unique Discount Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 1253-1285, 06.
    14. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2007. "Stock returns, dividend yield, and book-to-market ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 455-475, February.
    15. Prem Jain & Joshua Rosett, 2006. "Macroeconomic variables and the E/P ratio: Is inflation really positively associated with the E/P ratio?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-26, August.
    16. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Dirk Hackbarth & Richmond Mathews & David Robinson, 2014. "Capital Structure, Product Market Dynamics, and the Boundaries of the Firm," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(12), pages 2971-2993, December.
    18. Joan R. Rovira, 2017. "Secular stagnation and concentration of corporate power," Working Papers PKWP1704, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Marianne Rubinstein, 2008. "Le marché de l’immobilier résidentiel en France : évolutions récentes et perspectives," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 91(1), pages 143-163.
    20. Zongwu Cai & Bingyi Jing & Xinbing Kong & Zhi Liu, 2017. "Nonparametric regression with nearly integrated regressors under long‐run dependence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 20(1), pages 118-138, February.
    21. Kelly Nianyun Cai & Xiaoquan Jiang & Hei Wai Lee, 2013. "Debt Ipo Waves, Investor Sentiment, Market Conditions, And Issue Quality," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 36(4), pages 435-452, December.
    22. Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2020. "Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price–Dividend Ratio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 130-158, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock valuation; Dividend discount model; Markov chain; Financial risk management;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:43:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s12197-018-9455-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.