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Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China

Author

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  • Lifen Jia

    (Capital University of Economics and Business)

  • Wei Chen

    (Capital University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Lifen Jia & Wei Chen, 2021. "Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 243-259, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:fuzodm:v:20:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s10700-020-09341-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Shen, Jiayu & Shi, Jianxin & Gao, Lingceng & Zhang, Qiang & Zhu, Kai, 2023. "Uncertain green product supply chain with government intervention," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 136-156.
    2. Liu He & Yuanguo Zhu & Yajing Gu, 2023. "Nonparametric estimation for uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 697-715, December.
    3. Tang, Han & Yang, Xiangfeng, 2021. "Uncertain chemical reaction equation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    4. Jia, Lifen & Liu, Xueyong, 2021. "Optimal harvesting strategy based on uncertain logistic population model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    5. Chen, Dan & Liu, Yang, 2023. "Uncertain Gordon-Schaefer model driven by Liu process," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 450(C).
    6. Liu He & Yuanguo Zhu & Ziqiang Lu, 2023. "Parameter estimation for uncertain fractional differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 103-122, March.
    7. Yang Liu & Baoding Liu, 2022. "Residual analysis and parameter estimation of uncertain differential equations," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 513-530, December.
    8. Huberts, Nick F.D. & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Optimal timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions during an epidemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 305(3), pages 1366-1389.
    9. Farshid Mehrdoust & Idin Noorani & Wei Xu, 2023. "Uncertain energy model for electricity and gas futures with application in spark-spread option price," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 123-148, March.

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