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The Effect of Changing Sexual, Marital and Contraceptive Behaviour on Conceptions, Abortions, and Births

Author

Listed:
  • Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna

    (University “La Sapienza”, Rome –)

  • Stefano Gavini

    (University “La Sapienza”, Rome –)

  • Angela Spinelli

    (National Health Institute)

Abstract

A model is proposed to estimate the number of conceptions during a single year using scarce survey data, official data on births and abortions for the two years following the survey, and some parameters on contraception failure. The model is fitted for 1979, 1989, 1994 to Puglia, a Southern Italian region with a population of 4 millions. Simulations are also produced. The decrease in births is caused mainly by the decline in wanted births, whereas the decline in abortions is caused by diffusion of the pill, IUD, and condom. The rapid increase in the proportion of never-married women explains the slow decrease in unwanted births and conceptions, compared to the fast decline in wanted ones. This situation is different compared to other Western countries (e.g. France, UK, and USA) where the decline in TFR during the 1960s and 1970s was largely caused by the decline in unwanted fertility, thanks to improved modern contraception and sterilisation.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Stefano Gavini & Angela Spinelli, 1998. "The Effect of Changing Sexual, Marital and Contraceptive Behaviour on Conceptions, Abortions, and Births," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 61-88, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurpop:v:14:y:1998:i:1:d:10.1023_a:1006000814951
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1006000814951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1992_47n1_0045 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Schneider, Jane & Schneider, Peter, 1991. "Sex and respectability in an age of fertility decline: A Sicilian case study," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 885-895, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Castiglioni & Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna & Marzia Loghi, 2001. "Planned and Unplanned Births and Conceptions in Italy, 1970–1995," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 207-233, September.
    2. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(50), pages 1185-1228.

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