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Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Sheida Abdoli

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Farah Habib

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Mohammad Babazadeh

    (University of Tabriz)

Abstract

In recent years, the science of foresight has been entered into planning activities by urban and regional planners and this science has impacted on planning activities. This study discusses spatial development in the south of Bushehr province using the foresight approach. The general aim of this research is to compile scenarios for the development of the mentioned study area which comprises the southern part of Bushehr province including four counties of Dayyer, Jam, Kangan and Asaluyeh. The main reason for selecting this region is their direct impressibility by major changes in the country’s oil and gas industry. This research has extremely made use of the Delphi and cross-impact analysis methods to develop foresight scenarios. Using the Delphi method, 30 initial factors were identified in the economic, political-security, linkages, science and technology, manufacturing, natural, social, infrastructural and residential issues and then the cross-impact matrix was used to investigate the impact of factors on each other. In the next step, the ranking of direct and indirect factors was determined by Micmac software and on this basis, the final refining in the selection of drivers was done. In the final stage, axes of future scenarios were presented and then the future scenarios were drawn. Results of this research indicate that two main drivers namely Iran’s international relations and energy resources are the main axes of scenarios. These two drivers have more uncertainty and higher importance than other factors and the results in four scenarios showing the possibility of each situation’s occurrence.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheida Abdoli & Farah Habib & Mohammad Babazadeh, 2018. "Making spatial development scenario for south of Bushehr province, Iran, based on strategic foresight," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 1293-1309, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:20:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10668-017-9940-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-017-9940-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Durance, 2010. "Reciprocal influences in future thinking between Europe and the USA," Post-Print hal-02864627, HAL.
    2. Philippe Durance & Michel Godet, 2010. "Scenario building: Uses and abuses," Post-Print hal-02864615, HAL.
    3. Norman Dalkey & Olaf Helmer, 1963. "An Experimental Application of the DELPHI Method to the Use of Experts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 458-467, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saghi Raeisdanaei & Vahid Pirouzfar & Chia-Hung Su, 2022. "Technical and economic assessment of processes for the LNG production in cycles with expander and refrigeration," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(11), pages 13407-13425, November.

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