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Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay

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  • Wei Yang

    (Software College, Northeastern University)

Abstract

COVID-19 comes out as a sudden pandemic disease within human population. The pandemic dynamics of COVID-19 needs to be studied in detail. A pandemic model with hierarchical quarantine and time delay is proposed in this paper. In the COVID-19 case, the virus incubation period and the antibody failure will cause the time delay and reinfection, respectively, and the hierarchical quarantine strategy includes home isolation and quarantine in hospital. These factors that affect the spread of COVID-19 are well considered and analyzed in the model. The stability of the equilibrium and the nonlinear dynamics is studied as well. The threshold value $$\tau_{k}$$ τ k of the bifurcation is deduced and quantitatively analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to establish the analytical results with suitable examples. The research reveals that the COVID-19 outbreak may recur over a period of time, which can be helpful to increase the number of tested people with or without symptoms in order to be able to early identify the clusters of infection. And before the effective vaccine is successfully developed, the hierarchical quarantine strategy is currently the best way to prevent the spread of this pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Yang, 2021. "Modeling COVID-19 Pandemic with Hierarchical Quarantine and Time Delay," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 892-914, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:dyngam:v:11:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1007_s13235-021-00382-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s13235-021-00382-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Vsevolod G. Sorokin & Andrei V. Vyazmin, 2022. "Nonlinear Reaction–Diffusion Equations with Delay: Partial Survey, Exact Solutions, Test Problems, and Numerical Integration," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-39, May.
    2. Andrei D. Polyanin & Vsevolod G. Sorokin, 2023. "Exact Solutions of Reaction–Diffusion PDEs with Anisotropic Time Delay," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Yunhan Huang & Quanyan Zhu, 2022. "Game-Theoretic Frameworks for Epidemic Spreading and Human Decision-Making: A Review," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 7-48, March.
    4. Azhar Iqbal Kashif Butt & Saira Batool & Muhammad Imran & Muneerah Al Nuwairan, 2023. "Design and Analysis of a New COVID-19 Model with Comparative Study of Control Strategies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-29, April.
    5. Andrei D. Polyanin & Vsevolod G. Sorokin, 2023. "Reductions and Exact Solutions of Nonlinear Wave-Type PDEs with Proportional and More Complex Delays," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, January.

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