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The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires

Author

Listed:
  • Sara Yeatman

    (University of Colorado Denver
    University of Colorado Population Center)

  • Jenny Trinitapoli

    (University of Chicago)

  • Sarah Garver

    (University of Chicago)

Abstract

Persistently high levels of unintended fertility, combined with evidence that over- and underachieved fertility are typical and not exceptional, have prompted researchers to question the utility of fertility desires writ large. In this study, we elaborate this paradox: widespread unintendedness and meaningful, highly predictive fertility desires can and do coexist. Using data from Malawi, we demonstrate the predictive validity of numeric fertility timing desires over both four-month and one-year periods. We find that fertility timing desires are highly predictive of pregnancy and that they follow a gradient wherein the likelihood of pregnancy decreases in correspondence with desired time to next birth. This finding holds despite the simultaneous observation of high levels of unintended pregnancy in our sample. Discordance between desires and behaviors reflects constraints to achieving one’s fertility and the fluidity of desires but not their irrelevance. Fertility desires remain an essential—if sometimes blunt—tool in the demographers’ toolkit.

Suggested Citation

  • Sara Yeatman & Jenny Trinitapoli & Sarah Garver, 2020. "The Enduring Case for Fertility Desires," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2047-2056, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:demogr:v:57:y:2020:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-020-00921-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00921-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
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    6. Aart C. Liefbroer, 2009. "Changes in Family Size Intentions Across Young Adulthood: A Life-Course Perspective [Evolution des intentions en matière de taille de famille en début d’âge adulte: une approche biographique]," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 363-386, November.
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    13. repec:cai:poeine:pope_1102_0361 is not listed on IDEAS
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    2. Öberg, Stefan, 2021. "The casual effect of fertility: The multiple problems with instrumental variables for the number of children in families," SocArXiv peuvz, Center for Open Science.

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