IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v162y2020i2d10.1007_s10584-020-02747-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia

Author

Listed:
  • Gareth J. Marshall

    (Natural Environment Research Council)

  • Kirsti Jylhä

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Sonja Kivinen

    (University of Eastern Finland)

  • Mikko Laapas

    (Finnish Meteorological Institute)

  • Anita Verpe Dyrrdal

    (Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events (EPEs) have a major impact across Arctic Fennoscandia (AF). Here we examine the spatial variability of seasonal 50-year trends in three EPEs across AF for 1968–2017, using daily precipitation data from 46 meteorological stations, and analyse how these are related to contemporaneous changes in the principal atmospheric circulation patterns that impact AF climate. Positive trends in seasonal wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) are widespread across AF in all seasons except autumn. Spring (autumn) has the most widespread negative (positive) trends in consecutive dry days (CDD). There is less seasonal dependence for trends in consecutive wet days (CWDs), but the majority of the stations show an increase. Clear seasonal differences in the circulation pattern that exerted most influence on these AF EPE trends exist. In spring, PRCPTOT and CDD are most affected by the Scandinavian pattern at more than half the stations while it also has a marked influence on CWD. The East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern generally has the greatest influence on the most station EPE trends in summer and autumn, yet has no effect during either spring or winter. In winter, the dominant circulation pattern across AF varies more between the different EPEs, with the North Atlantic Oscillation, Polar/Eurasia and East Atlantic patterns all exerting a major influence. There are distinct geographical distributions to the dominant pattern affecting particular EPEs in some seasons, especially winter, while in others there is no discernible spatial relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Gareth J. Marshall & Kirsti Jylhä & Sonja Kivinen & Mikko Laapas & Anita Verpe Dyrrdal, 2020. "The role of atmospheric circulation patterns in driving recent changes in indices of extreme seasonal precipitation across Arctic Fennoscandia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 741-759, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02747-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02747-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-020-02747-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-020-02747-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Patrick Willems, 2013. "Multidecadal oscillatory behaviour of rainfall extremes in Europe," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 931-944, October.
    2. Xuebin Zhang & Lisa Alexander & Gabriele C. Hegerl & Philip Jones & Albert Klein Tank & Thomas C. Peterson & Blair Trewin & Francis W. Zwiers, 2011. "Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(6), pages 851-870, November.
    3. V. Kharin & F. Zwiers & X. Zhang & M. Wehner, 2013. "Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 345-357, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kexin Zhang & Jiajia Luo & Jiaoting Peng & Hongchang Zhang & Yan Ji & Hong Wang, 2022. "Analysis of Extreme Temperature Variations on the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau in Southwestern China over the Past 60 Years," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-17, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2022. "Evaluation of CMIP6 models in the representation of observed extreme temperature indices trends in South America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    3. Caterina Samela & Vito Imbrenda & Rosa Coluzzi & Letizia Pace & Tiziana Simoniello & Maria Lanfredi, 2022. "Multi-Decadal Assessment of Soil Loss in a Mediterranean Region Characterized by Contrasting Local Climates," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Gloria Buriticá & Philippe Naveau, 2023. "Stable sums to infer high return levels of multivariate rainfall time series," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), June.
    5. Conrad Wasko & Rory Nathan, 2019. "The local dependency of precipitation on historical changes in temperature," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 105-120, September.
    6. Mark D. Risser & William D. Collins & Michael F. Wehner & Travis A. O’Brien & Huanping Huang & Paul A. Ullrich, 2024. "Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Hong Ying & Hongyan Zhang & Ying Sun & Jianjun Zhao & Zhengxiang Zhang & Xiaoyi Guo & Hang Zhao & Rihan Wu & Guorong Deng, 2020. "CMIP5-Based Spatiotemporal Changes of Extreme Temperature Events during 2021–2100 in Mainland China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Claudia Tebaldi & Michael F. Wehner, 2018. "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 349-361, February.
    9. Luminda Niroshana Gunawardhana & Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Ghadeer Al-Hadhrami, 2018. "Quantification of the changes in intensity and frequency of hourly extreme rainfall attributed climate change in Oman," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1649-1664, July.
    10. Helbling, Marc & Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel & Mistry, Malcolm & Schaub, Max, 2021. "Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 169(1-2), pages 1-1.
    11. Victor Ongoma & Haishan Chen & Chujie Gao & Aston Matwai Nyongesa & Francis Polong, 2018. "Future changes in climate extremes over Equatorial East Africa based on CMIP5 multimodel ensemble," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 901-920, January.
    12. Wenhui Liu & Jidong Wu & Rumei Tang & Mengqi Ye & Jing Yang, 2020. "Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Yong Yuan & Denghua Yan & Zhe Yuan & Jun Yin & Zhongnan Zhao, 2019. "Spatial Distribution of Precipitation in Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin between 1961 to 2016, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-11, September.
    14. Berlemann, Michael & Eurich, Marina, 2021. "Natural hazard risk and life satisfaction – Empirical evidence for hurricanes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    15. Christopher J. Picard & Jonathan M. Winter & Charlotte Cockburn & Janel Hanrahan & Natalie G. Teale & Patrick J. Clemins & Brian Beckage, 2023. "Twenty-first century increases in total and extreme precipitation across the Northeastern USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-26, June.
    16. Jeanne Thibeault & Anji Seth, 2014. "Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(2), pages 273-287, November.
    17. Amanda de O. Regueira & Henderson Silva Wanderley, 2022. "Changes in rainfall rates and increased number of extreme rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 3833-3847, December.
    18. Hefei Huang & Huijuan Cui & Quansheng Ge, 2021. "Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 2059-2079, September.
    19. Giovanni Forzieri & Luc Feyen & Simone Russo & Michalis Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Alfieri & Stephen Outten & Mirco Migliavacca & Alessandra Bianchi & Rodrigo Rojas & Alba Cid, 2016. "Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 105-119, July.
    20. Xiaoyan Liang & Zhenmin Niu & Xiaolong Li, 2023. "Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Climate Events in Northwestern China from 1960 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-20, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02747-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.