IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v152y2019i1d10.1007_s10584-018-2362-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Pfrommer

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Timo Goeschl

    (Heidelberg University)

  • Alexander Proelss

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Martin Carrier

    (Bielefeld University)

  • Johannes Lenhard

    (Bielefeld University)

  • Henrike Martin

    (Trier University)

  • Ulrike Niemeier

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology)

  • Hauke Schmidt

    (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology)

Abstract

Climate litigation has attracted renewed interest as a governance tool. A key challenge in climate litigation is to assess the factual basis of causation. Extreme weather attribution, specifically the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), has been proposed as a way to tackle this challenge. What remains unclear is how attribution science interacts with the legal admissibility of evidence based on climate models. While evidence has to be legally admissible in order to be considered in a trial, it has to be reliable in order for the court to arrive at a legally correct conclusion. Since parties to the trial have incentives to produce evidence favorable to their case, admissibility requirements and the reliability of the evidence brought forward are linked. We provide a specific proposal for how to accommodate FAR estimates in admissibility standards by modifying an existing set of admissibility criteria, the Daubert criteria. We argue that two of the five Daubert criteria are unsuitable for dealing with such evidence and that replacing those criteria with ones directly addressing the reliability of FAR estimates is adequate. Lastly, we highlight the dependence of courts on both the existence and accessibility of a framework to determine the reliability of FAR estimates in executing such criteria.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Pfrommer & Timo Goeschl & Alexander Proelss & Martin Carrier & Johannes Lenhard & Henrike Martin & Ulrike Niemeier & Hauke Schmidt, 2019. "Establishing causation in climate litigation: admissibility and reliability," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 67-84, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2362-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-018-2362-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter A. Stott & David J. Karoly & Francis W. Zwiers, 2017. "Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 143-150, September.
    2. Kevin E. Trenberth & John T. Fasullo & Theodore G. Shepherd, 2015. "Attribution of climate extreme events," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 725-730, August.
    3. Jasanoff, S., 2005. "Law's knowledge: Science for justice in legal settings," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(S1), pages 49-58.
    4. Wagner, W., 2005. "The perils of relying on interested parties to evaluate scientific quality," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(S1), pages 99-106.
    5. Greg Lusk, 2017. "The social utility of event attribution: liability, adaptation, and justice-based loss and damage," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 201-212, July.
    6. Berger, M.A., 2005. "What has a decade of Daubert wrought?," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 95(S1), pages 59-65.
    7. Michael E. Mann & Elisabeth A. Lloyd & Naomi Oreskes, 2017. "Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 131-142, September.
    8. Myles Allen, 2003. "Liability for climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6926), pages 891-892, February.
    9. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Callan Harker & Maureen Hassall & Paul Lant & Nikodem Rybak & Paul Dargusch, 2022. "What Can Machine Learning Teach Us about Australian Climate Risk Disclosures?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    2. Emily Williams, 2020. "Attributing blame?—climate accountability and the uneven landscape of impacts, emissions, and finances," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(2), pages 273-290, July.
    3. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Dana R. Fisher & Sohana Nasrin, 2021. "Climate activism and its effects," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), January.
    5. Friederike E. L. Otto & Petra Minnerop & Emmanuel Raju & Luke J. Harrington & Rupert F. Stuart‐Smith & Emily Boyd & Rachel James & Richard Jones & Kristian C. Lauta, 2022. "Causality and the fate of climate litigation: The role of the social superstructure narrative," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 736-750, November.
    6. Mittelstaedt, Christian & Baumgärtner, Stefan, 2022. "Attribution of Collective Causal Responsibility to Individual Actors in a Stochastic System," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264051, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henrik Thorén & Johannes Persson & Lennart Olsson, 2021. "A pluralist approach to epistemic dilemmas in event attribution science," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(1), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Aglaé Jézéquel & Vivian Dépoues & Hélène Guillemot & Mélodie Trolliet & Jean-Paul Vanderlinden & Pascal Yiou, 2018. "Behind the veil of extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 367-383, August.
    3. Diekert, Florian & Goeschl, Timo & König-Kersting, Christian, 2024. "The Behavioral Economics of Extreme Event Attribution," Working Papers 0741, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Henri F. Drake & Geoffrey Henderson, 2022. "A defense of usable climate mitigation science: how science can contribute to social movements," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(1), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Geert Jan Oldenborgh & Karin Wiel & Sarah Kew & Sjoukje Philip & Friederike Otto & Robert Vautard & Andrew King & Fraser Lott & Julie Arrighi & Roop Singh & Maarten Aalst, 2021. "Pathways and pitfalls in extreme event attribution," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Zhongwei Liu & Jonathan M. Eden & Bastien Dieppois & Matthew Blackett, 2022. "A global view of observed changes in fire weather extremes: uncertainties and attribution to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(1), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Giovanni Bettini & Giovanna Gioli & Romain Felli, 2020. "Clouded skies: How digital technologies could reshape “Loss and Damage” from climate change," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), July.
    8. Peter A. Stott & David J. Karoly & Francis W. Zwiers, 2017. "Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 143-150, September.
    9. Aditya N. Mishra & Douglas Maraun & Raphael Knevels & Heimo Truhetz & Alexander Brenning & Herwig Proske, 2023. "Climate change amplified the 2009 extreme landslide event in Austria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(9), pages 1-18, September.
    10. Friederike Otto & Suzanne Rosier & Myles Allen & Neil Massey & Cameron Rye & Jara Quintana, 2015. "Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 77-91, September.
    11. Kaustubh Salvi & Subimal Ghosh, 2016. "Projections of Extreme Dry and Wet Spells in the 21st Century India Using Stationary and Non-stationary Standardized Precipitation Indices," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 667-681, December.
    12. Barton, Madeleine G. & Terblanche, John S. & Sinclair, Brent J., 2019. "Incorporating temperature and precipitation extremes into process-based models of African lepidoptera changes the predicted distribution under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 394(C), pages 53-65.
    13. Claudio, Morana & Giacomo, Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature anomalies, radiative forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 361, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 10 Feb 2017.
    14. Luke J. Harrington, 2017. "Investigating differences between event-as-class and probability density-based attribution statements with emerging climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 641-654, April.
    15. Weixing Ma & Tinglin Huang & Xuan Li & Zizhen Zhou & Yang Li & Kang Zeng, 2015. "The Effects of Storm Runoff on Water Quality and the Coping Strategy of a Deep Canyon-Shaped Source Water Reservoir in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, July.
    16. Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    17. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz & Adam Choryński & Janusz Olejnik & Hans J. Schellnhuber & Marek Urbaniak & Klaudia Ziemblińska, 2023. "Climate Change Science and Policy—A Guided Tour across the Space of Attitudes and Outcomes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Maaz Gardezi & J. Gordon Arbuckle, 2019. "Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers’ Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 17-34, January.
    20. Avri Eitan, 2021. "Promoting Renewable Energy to Cope with Climate Change—Policy Discourse in Israel," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:152:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2362-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.