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Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment

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  • Cotto, Olivier
  • Chevin, Luis-Miguel

Abstract

Most natural environments vary stochastically and are temporally autocorrelated. Previous theory investigating the effects of environmental autocorrelation on evolution mostly assumed that total fitness resulted from a single selection episode. Yet organisms are likely to experience selection repeatedly along their life, in response to possibly different environmental states. We model the evolution of a quantitative trait in organisms with non-overlapping generations undergoing several episodes of selection in a randomly fluctuating and autocorrelated environment. We show that the evolutionary dynamics depends not directly on fluctuations of the environment, but instead on those of an effective phenotypic optimum that integrates the effects of all selection episodes within each generation. The variance and autocorrelation of the integrated optimum shape the variance and predictability of selection, with substantial qualitative and quantitative deviations from previous predictions considering a single selection episode per generation. We also investigate the consequence of multiple selection episodes per generation on population load. In particular, we identify a new load resulting from within-generation fluctuating selection, generating the death of individuals without significance for the evolutionary dynamics. Our study emphasizes how taking into account fluctuating selection within lifetime unravels new properties of evolutionary dynamics, with crucial implications notably with respect to responses to global changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotto, Olivier & Chevin, Luis-Miguel, 2020. "Fluctuations in lifetime selection in an autocorrelated environment," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 119-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:thpobi:v:134:y:2020:i:c:p:119-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tpb.2020.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Irja I. Ratikainen & Hanna Kokko, 2019. "The coevolution of lifespan and reversible plasticity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-7, December.
    2. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
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