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Wpływ starzejącego się społeczeństwa na długookresowy wzrost gospodarczy Polski do roku 2050

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  • Waldemar Florczak

Abstract

Głębokie zmiany struktury demograficznej populacji Polski wpłyną na aktywność gospodarczą. Niezależne od uwarunkowań ekonomicznych, zmiany te będą silnie oddziaływały na przyszły rozwój społeczno-ekonomiczny kraju. W artykule oszacowano długookresowy wpływ starzejącego się społeczeństwa na wzrost gospodarczy Polski do roku 2050, mierzony dynamiką PKB per capita. Punktem wyjścia jest tożsamościowa dekompozycja wielkości PKB per capita i powiązanie wszystkich jej komponentów ze strukturą demograficzną populacji. Na podstawie długookresowej prognozy rozwoju demograficznego do roku 2050, opracowanej przez GUS, i adekwatnych metod analitycznych (modele ekonometryczne, shift share, równowaga ogólna) dokonano oceny wpływu starzejącego się społeczeństwa na dynamikę PKB per capita w Polsce do roku 2050. Z analizy wynika, że efekty te w ciągu najbliższych piętnastu lat będą pozytywne, ale od trzeciej dekady bieżącego stulecia spowolnią dynamikę wzrostu.

Suggested Citation

  • Waldemar Florczak, 2017. "Wpływ starzejącego się społeczeństwa na długookresowy wzrost gospodarczy Polski do roku 2050," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 5, pages 73-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2017:i:5:p:73-104
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PKB per capita; demograficzne uwarunkowania wzrostu; starzejące się społeczeństwo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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