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Data Adjustment and Forecast Performance

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  • Andy Blake
  • Nigel Pain

Abstract

This article demonstrates how the use of balanced data can affect a forecasting exercise. The forecast published by the National Institute in November 1989 is revised with the constant and current price residual errors in the National Accounts being assigned to component parts in a manner consistent with the overall pattern of imbalances within the accounts at the time. One of the main results is that preliminary estimates for some components of the accounts, available at the time of the forecast, may also need to be adjusted. This is required to ensure that the forecast is consistent with both balanced data over the future and the structure of the model itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy Blake & Nigel Pain, 1991. "Data Adjustment and Forecast Performance," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 135(1), pages 66-78, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:135:y:1991:i:1:p:66-78
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