IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v47y2010i5p523-533.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The deterrent effects of economic integration

Author

Listed:
  • Aysegul Aydin

Abstract

Economic interdependence and international conflict studies have traditionally focused on the role of bilateral trade on direct deterrence, mostly omitting its indirect effects on third-party states. While scholars in the extended deterrence literature have examined the role of defender–target trade in deterring aggressors, most empirical research has remained limited to immediate deterrence and neglected general deterrence. This article synthesizes these literatures and goes beyond the dyad-level analysis in trade–conflict studies by focusing on the deterrent effects of trade. I claim that trade ties between the defender and target are not sufficient for extended general deterrence. This is mainly because international trade by itself is a poor indicator of the extent to which the target is an economically important friend of the defender, worth defending against aggressors. Empirical analysis of militarized disputes between rival states in the post-1945 period supports this point and shows that extended deterrence success is most likely in cases where the defender and target are economically integrated through regional trade institutions as well as conducting heavy trade. Economically minded defenders can successfully generate credible signals of resolve if they have institutional ties with their important trade partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Aysegul Aydin, 2010. "The deterrent effects of economic integration," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(5), pages 523-533, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:47:y:2010:i:5:p:523-533
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343310370290
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343310370290
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0022343310370290?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pevehouse, Jon & Russett, Bruce, 2006. "Democratic International Governmental Organizations Promote Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 969-1000, October.
    2. Zeev Maoz, 2009. "The Effects of Strategic and Economic Interdependence on International Conflict Across Levels of Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 223-240, January.
    3. Mansfield, Edward D. & Milner, Helen V., 1999. "The New Wave of Regionalism," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 589-627, July.
    4. D. Scott Bennett & Allan C. Stam, 2000. "Eugene : A conceptual manual," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 179-204, March.
    5. Russett, Bruce & Oneal, John R. & Davis, David R., 1998. "The Third Leg of the Kantian Tripod for Peace: International Organizations and Militarized Disputes, 1950–85," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 441-467, July.
    6. Fordham, Benjamin O., 2007. "Revisionism Reconsidered: Exports and American Intervention in World War I," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 277-310, April.
    7. Brett Ashley Leeds, 2003. "Do Alliances Deter Aggression? The Influence of Military Alliances on the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(3), pages 427-439, July.
    8. David J. Lektzian & Christopher M. Sprecher, 2007. "Sanctions, Signals, and Militarized Conflict," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(2), pages 415-431, April.
    9. Mastanduno, Michael, 1998. "Economics and Security in Statecraft and Scholarship," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 825-854, October.
    10. Mansfield, Edward D. & Pevehouse, Jon C., 2000. "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 775-808, October.
    11. Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 1993. "General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 61-73, March.
    12. Haftel, Yoram Z., 2007. "Designing for Peace: Regional Integration Arrangements, Institutional Variation, and Militarized Interstate Disputes," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 217-237, January.
    13. Curtis S. Signorino & Ahmer Tarar, 2006. "A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(3), pages 586-605, July.
    14. Michael D. Ward & Randolph M. Siverson & Xun Cao, 2007. "Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 583-601, July.
    15. Mansfield, Edward D. & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "Multilateral Determinants of Regionalism: The Effects of GATT/WTO on the Formation of Preferential Trading Arrangements," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(4), pages 829-862, October.
    16. Vesna Danilovic & Joe Clare, 2007. "The Kantian Liberal Peace (Revisited)," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(2), pages 397-414, April.
    17. Goldstein, Judith L. & Rivers, Douglas & Tomz, Michael, 2007. "Institutions in International Relations: Understanding the Effects of the GATT and the WTO on World Trade," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 37-67, January.
    18. Erik Gartzke, 2007. "The Capitalist Peace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(1), pages 166-191, January.
    19. Gartzke, Erik & Li, Quan & Boehmer, Charles, 2001. "Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(2), pages 391-438, April.
    20. Gowa, Joanne & Mansfield, Edward D., 1993. "Power Politics and International Trade," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 408-420, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. D'Souza, Anna, 2014. "Conflict and Trade: Implications for Agriculture and Food Security," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197200, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Alexander H. Montgomery, 2012. "War, Trade, and Distrust: Why Trade Agreements Don’t Always Keep the Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 29(3), pages 257-278, July.
    2. Brandon J Kinne, 2014. "Does third-party trade reduce conflict? Credible signaling versus opportunity costs," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 28-48, February.
    3. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Alexander H. Montgomery, 2008. "Power or Plenty," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(2), pages 213-242, April.
    4. Andreas Dür & Leonardo Baccini & Manfred Elsig, 2014. "The design of international trade agreements: Introducing a new dataset," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 353-375, September.
    5. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Jana von Stein & Erik Gartzke, 2008. "International Organizations Count," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(2), pages 175-188, April.
    6. Xiang Jun & Primiano Christopher B. & Huang Wei-hao, 2015. "Aggressive or Peaceful Rise? An Empirical Assessment of China’s Militarized Conflict, 1979–2010," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 301-325, August.
    7. Susan Ariel Aaronson & M. Rodwan Abouharb & K. Daniel Wang, 2015. "The Liberal Illusion Is Not a Complete Delusion: The WTO Helps Member States Keep the Peace Only When It Increases Trade," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 455-484, December.
    8. Timothy M Peterson, 2011. "Third-party trade, political similarity, and dyadic conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(2), pages 185-200, March.
    9. J Tyson Chatagnier & Haeyong Lim, 2021. "Does the WTO exacerbate international conflict?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(5), pages 1068-1082, September.
    10. Yoram Haftel, 2013. "Commerce and institutions: Trade, scope, and the design of regional economic organizations," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 389-414, September.
    11. Christina L. Davis & Tyler Pratt, 2021. "The forces of attraction: How security interests shape membership in economic institutions," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 903-929, October.
    12. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Alexander H. Montgomery, 2006. "Power Positions," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(1), pages 3-27, February.
    13. Yue Lu & Wei Gu & Ka Zeng, 2021. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Political Relations?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(5), pages 57-83, September.
    14. David Lektzian & Glen Biglaiser, 2014. "The effect of foreign direct investment on the use and success of US sanctions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 70-93, February.
    15. Lee, Jiwon & Wittgenstein, Teresa, 2017. "Weak vs. Strong Ties: Explaining Early Settlement in WTO Disputes," ILE Working Paper Series 7, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    16. Ana Carolina Garriga, 2009. "Regime Type and Bilateral Treaty Formalization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(5), pages 698-726, October.
    17. Yonatan Lupu & Vincent A. Traag, 2013. "Trading Communities, the Networked Structure of International Relations, and the Kantian Peace," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(6), pages 1011-1042, December.
    18. Mark Copelovitch & David Ohls, 2012. "Trade, institutions, and the timing of GATT/WTO accession in post-colonial states," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 81-107, March.
    19. Kevin Sweeney & Omar M.G. Keshk, 2005. "the Similarity of States: Using S to Compute Dyadic Interest Similarity," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 22(2), pages 165-187, April.
    20. Edward D. Mansfield & Brian M. Pollins, 2001. "The Study of Interdependence and Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(6), pages 834-859, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:47:y:2010:i:5:p:523-533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.