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Transitions from Authoritarian Rule and the Problem of Violence

Author

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  • Jakub Zielinski

    (Department of Political Science, University of Chicago)

Abstract

This article asks why some attempts at democratization trigger a military intervention while others end peacefully. The author argues that the cause of violence lies in a miscommunication within the government rather than in an intransigence of the opposition. A formal model is analyzed in which opposition, reformers, and military bargain over the extent of democratization. The reformers are better informed than the opposition about the military's attitude toward reforms. Consequently, the opposition treats the behavior of the reformers as a signal about the military. In this model, violence occurs only when the reformers are misinformed about the military. The author tests this result against historical evidence from Hungary and Poland. In 1956, both countries attempted to liberalize their dictatorships. Yet, Soviet military intervention occurred only in Hungary. The author traces the difference in the outcomes to different inferences drawn in the two countries about the Soviet attitude toward reform.

Suggested Citation

  • Jakub Zielinski, 1999. "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule and the Problem of Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 43(2), pages 213-228, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:43:y:1999:i:2:p:213-228
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002799043002006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colomer, Josep M., 1991. "Transitions by Agreement: Modeling the Spanish Way," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1283-1302, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Ben, 2012. "Push-button-autocracy in Tunisia: Analysing the role of Internet infrastructure, institutions and international markets in creating a Tunisian censorship regime," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 484-492.
    2. Hausken, Kjell & Plümper, Thomas & Schneider, Gerald, 2002. "The Trilemma of the Protectionist Autocrat: An Assessment of the Political Determinants of Foreign Economic Liberalization," MPRA Paper 75866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hausken, Kjell & Mattli, Walter & Plümper, Thomas, 2006. "Widening versus Deepening of International Unions," MPRA Paper 75882, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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