Presidential Responses to Foreign Policy Crises

Previous analyses have revealed that since World War II, decisions to use U.S. military force have been more dependent on domestic political factors than on the international environment. This research, however, focuses on the general context of decision making instead of the situational context surrounding presidential decisions to use the U.S. military for policy purposes. The current research frames prior analyses and findings within a rational choice framework of crisis decision making. It assesses the impacts of international and domestic factors on the severity of U.S. responses in international crises from 1954 to 1986. A high expected value for war and “defeats†in previous crises makes the United States more likely to resort to violent crisis responses. Also, U.S. responses are likely to be more severe during high levels of economic “misery,†as presidential elections become more proximate and as the president's partisan control over Congress increases.