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An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth

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  • Thomas R. Plaut

    (Bureau of Business Research, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712 USA)

Abstract

An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Plaut, 1981. "An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 6(1), pages 53-70, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:6:y:1981:i:1:p:53-70
    DOI: 10.1177/016001768100600104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chang K. Seung & Thomas R. Harris & Jeffrey E. Eglin & Noelwah R. Netusil, 1999. "Application of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model to Evaluate Surface Water Reallocation Policies," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 29(2), pages 139-155, Fall.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    4. Chang K. Seung & David S. Kraybill, 2001. "The Effects of Infrastructure Investment: A Two-Sector Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis for Ohio," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 261-281, April.
    5. Chang K. Seung & Michael G. Dalton & André E. Punt & Dusanka Poljak & Robert Foy, 2015. "Economic Impacts Of Changes In An Alaska Crab Fishery From Ocean Acidification," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-35, November.

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