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Obtaining Interval Estimates of Policy Impacts From Interrupted Time Series

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  • Marvin B. Mandell

    (University of Maryland Baltimore Graduate School)

Abstract

The absence of a means for obtaining confidence intervals for the impact of an intervention represents a serious gap in the literature on the analysis of interrupted time-series designs. In this article, an approximate procedure for constructing such confidence intervals is developed both in general terms and for two specific forms of intervention effects—abrupt temporary effects and gradual permanent effects. The adequacy of the procedure is examined using Monte Carlo simulation. An illustration of the procedure using a real data set is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Marvin B. Mandell, 1987. "Obtaining Interval Estimates of Policy Impacts From Interrupted Time Series," Evaluation Review, , vol. 11(5), pages 631-659, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:evarev:v:11:y:1987:i:5:p:631-659
    DOI: 10.1177/0193841X8701100504
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    1. Theil, Henri, 1983. "Linear algebra and matrix methods in econometrics," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-65, Elsevier.
    2. Guerin, D. & MacKinnon, D.P., 1985. "An assessment of the California child restraint requirement," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 75(2), pages 142-144.
    3. Gillings, D. & Makuc, D. & Siegel, E., 1981. "Analysis of interrupted time series mortality trends: An example to evaluate regionalized perinatal care," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 71(1), pages 38-46.
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