IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/envira/v28y1996i8p1417-1444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China

Author

Listed:
  • J Shen

    (Department of Geography, University of Wales Swansea, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, Wales)

  • N A Spence

    (Department of Geography, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, England)

Abstract

The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban—rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban—rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Two important components of urban population growth—rural to urban migration and transition—are considered. In previous research, rural to urban population transition was ignored and thus urbanization levels may be significantly underprojected. An accounts-based urban—rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established in this research. These models are used to make urban—rural population projections for the period 1988–2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • J Shen & N A Spence, 1996. "Modelling Urban—Rural Population Growth in China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(8), pages 1417-1444, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:28:y:1996:i:8:p:1417-1444
    DOI: 10.1068/a281417
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a281417
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1068/a281417?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vislie, Jon, 1979. "Division of labour--Simon revisited : A comment," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 61-70, February.
    2. J. Ledent, 1982. "Long‐Range Regional Population Forecasting: Specification Of A Minimal Demoeconomic Model, With A Test For Tucson, Arizona," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 37-67, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bocquier & Ashira Menashe-Oren & Wanli Nie, 2023. "Migration’s contribution to the urban transition: Direct census estimates from Africa and Asia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(24), pages 681-732.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      More about this item

      Statistics

      Access and download statistics

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:envira:v:28:y:1996:i:8:p:1417-1444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.